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If Lincoln had walked away from the slave states, WWI would have included a Civil War like blood bath with the slave south and the industrial north allied variously with England and Germany during the First World War. Germany attempted to get little Mexico to soak off US forces during WWI, they would certainly have done the same with anyone else they could have.

Now that is an interesting observation. The only flaw in it is that it presupposes that Arch Duke Ferdinand would have still gotten shot in this alternate reality, but assuming all else stayed the same, it is quite possible that you may have a point. Of course, it also overlook the possibility that with a smaller USA, we wouldn't have gotten involved in that European war in the first place.

Woodrow Wilson might not even have become President. Hmmm... I think it's too chaotic to predict any of that with any degree of certainty.

The successful suppression of the rebellion prevented what could likely be a string of wars between various rump states.

I dunno, do we fight any wars with Canada? The two nations may have just gotten along fine. I think Slavery would have lingered for many decades longer, but I think eventually the tide of public opinion would have turned against it even in the South. After Mechanical farming equipment was developed, Slavery would have become far less lucrative, and the Southern Social Aristocratic elite would have eventually turned up their nose against it.

It probably would have taken far longer for Blacks to get equal rights, but I think it would have still happened. Of course, in this alternative universe, there is a good chance that neither of us would have been born.

I just don’t think that President Theodore Roosevelt would have been able to keep out of a European war either, perhaps not so long as Wilson. Nor do I think that the assassination of Ferdinand was necessary. Germany had invested in its military, and spent more on that than they spent on trade with France, so they looked to their legions as a solution, rather than restraining their legions to retain trade with France. Britain had more trade with France than Germany, so would side with France.

We did fight a war with Canada in 1812. We also fought a war with Mexico in 1848, and came very close to another in 1916, but they were not organized to hold up their end.

Imagine T. Roosevelt as the US president while Wilson was president of the slave owning Confederacy. Each allied to a set of partly compatible European powers. Ouch!