[Fawn]

Well.....this thing is moving west as I predicted. :( It just might end up in Louisiana after all.

[rarestia]

Like I said, do NOT put any faith in the 3/5-day tracks. They are aggregate estimates on paths based on ensemble computer models.

Here's why it's moving west in the 3/5-day track:

The SHIPS model (white) is pulling it out over the central Gulf, but as I've said numerous times before, the GFS (Red in this model) is historically the MOST accurate predictor and has not changed at all over the last 24 hours. When GFS AND GFDL (Blue in this model) are in close agreement, there's general consensus as to modeling.

Saturday will be the big day for predictions.

[rarestia]

Here's another thing to consider:

This is a longer term model used by all programs. Notice there's a purple line streaking out into the Gulf that's roughly on the same path as the SHIPS model (white line) in the last picture? Even in the long term models, they're predicting a shift to the north and to the east. It's really a matter of time. There are several factors in the upper atmosphere that will push this north and east and away from the central/western Gulf.

I'd bet the farm that LA is free and clear from this.