[rarestia]

Like I said, do NOT put any faith in the 3/5-day tracks. They are aggregate estimates on paths based on ensemble computer models.

Here's why it's moving west in the 3/5-day track:

The SHIPS model (white) is pulling it out over the central Gulf, but as I've said numerous times before, the GFS (Red in this model) is historically the MOST accurate predictor and has not changed at all over the last 24 hours. When GFS AND GFDL (Blue in this model) are in close agreement, there's general consensus as to modeling.

Saturday will be the big day for predictions.

[Fawn]

OK......Saturday I’ll be back to give you kudo’s or grief. LOL