It’s 5 days out and already quickly shifting west? I say it’s going to Louisiana....
No way it’s going to LA. That would require a significant degradation of the trough coming down through the midwest, and if that happened, we’d likely see a TX touchdown.
There’s not much wiggle room with the midwestern trough. It either exists or it doesn’t. It’s currently parked across the northern Gulf coast. It would have to degrade or turn into a warm front and regress back across the plains, and the likelihood of that happening with the Gulf being as warm as it is would be nearly impossible.