The first part of your statement is utter bullsh!t. Refinery problems would cause a spike in gasoline prices, but what we've seen in recent weeks is a steep rise in the price of crude oil -- which is not affected this way by refinery capacity. If anything, a refinery shutdown would cause a decline in crude oil prices because there would be a glut of oil on the market and less capacity to refine it.
For several years now, the crude oil market has been "upside down" from a historical perspective. That is, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil is trading at a discount of about 10% to 15% compared to Brent crude oil. This is highly unusual because WTI is a higher grade than Brent and would typically be more expensive. But it's cheaper now because there's actually a glut of WTI oil on the market -- driven by an imbalance between North America's growing supply and reduced demand.
Your statement is just a tad too strong there. Both factors are contributing, but they're saying gas prices will go down starting around September/October because the refinery issues should be cleaned up by then. Doesn't guarantee some other unexpected factor won't be in play by then of course. But these temporary issues plus the standard lower demand after Summer is not leading to any kind of slam-dunk for getting Obama booted out based on gas prices.