[Chainmail]

A bit facile: The reason the Japanese attacked the US and initiated the war was our attempted restriction of their aggressive expansion in Asia. The quanitities of oil available were a factor in their decision-making processes but they didn't need more than a certain basic amount to fuel their manufacturing and military requirements. Having n million tons per year of oil more than our adversary didn't make any difference at all if we didn't have the engineering, manufacturing, personnel, and most of all the will to fight them.

In the Japanese extimation, the United States didn't have the moral strength or unity to fight a bloody war of attrition in the Pacific. They believed that one or two quick, decisive blows would eliminate our naval power and our advance bases in Asia and they would assert control and that we would accept the new reality.

They didn't know us.

[Former Proud Canadian]

They didn't know us.

Precisely. The American psyche, at that time, was such that the only acceptable outcome of the Pacific war was Unconditional Surrender. No other outcome was acceptable.

Mecca still stands. Times have changed.

[Recon Dad]

Japan produced only 7% of their oil needs prior to the war.

but they didn’t need more than a certain basic amount to fuel their manufacturing and military requirements

Maybe Tojo and some generals espoused the above, but the Admirals understood the fuel crisis. The first thing after Pearl Harbor was to try and secure the shipping lanes to the Indies and the oil there.

WWI and WWII ended the same way with the losers stuck without the fuel to continue fighting.