Posted on 06/09/2012 10:58:24 PM PDT by moonshot925
I am going to use the data from the "League of Nations Statistical Yearbook" for the year 1937. It has accurate figures for production.
CRUDE PETROLEUM PRODUCTION(metric tonnes)
United States = 148,070,000
Japan = 354,000
Like I said the USA would not have gone to war over SE Asia
In addition attacking the USA insured the Russians that they didn’t have to worry about Japan’s treaty with Germany and aiding Germany by attacking Russia so the Russians were able to bring their Siberian divisions in to defeat the Germans at Stalingrad
Look at the difference for coal production in 1937.
United States = 451,223,000 metric tonnes
Japan = 45,258,000 metric tonnes
The worst possible scenario would be one ending with Japan in control of Hawaii and possible control of Australia. However I would have to doubt if the taking of Australia would even be possible based on its large size and with China being the main priority for the Army. An invasion of the US mainland would not be possible, those same marine divisions storming beaches, would be stationed on the west coast for defense (I for one would not want to charge beaches on entrenched marines). Shipyards on the West Coast would be rendered useless, by attacks or threat of attack. Japan would also probably hit Panama to knock out the canal.
Our submarine forces would continue to wreck havoc on Japanese shipping until they had no forward areas to stage from, and any damage they would inflict would be pretty much permanent.
Germany would still fall. Japan would be facing holding island bases while their supply networks were over-extended. At some point the US would have naval superiority and force a confrontation with the JVN. Any remaining forces would be hunted down with airborne radar.
The Japanese failed to upgrade much of their military during the war, it is doubtful they would have the opportunity do so when faced with shipping problems even with their victories.
After US operations and landings in the south of France there would be little need for a large naval presence in the Atlantic and much of those forces would be moved to the Pacific.
Facing another long drawn out campaign the Japanese might have been able to secure some sort of peace (without an unconditional surrender), if they would be wise enough to see it (I doubt the Japanese military which pretty much ruled at that time would have been).
So more of the same, an island hopping campaign 2 years later than when we started, probably ending with nukes once we got Tinian
The first A6M Zero prototype went to the test airfield in an oxcart - using trucks on Japan’s unpaved roads tended to damage the aircraft. California alone had more paved roads and more railroad than Japan. In American we would have called that a clue.
The Japanese went to war with us because they imagined that we would not fight. That difference in petrol production was one of the reasons they went to war. They wanted to “unite” (i.e. conquer) all of SE Asia and grab the resources for themselves.
Interesting set of opinions.
I think something that is partially being left out of this is that the Japanese home islands have almost no natural resources. Few minerals, oil, gas, coal, etc. Even farmland is in short supply to support the population.
Japan cannot possibly exist as an industrialized modern nation based strictly on its own resources. It must bring in resources from elsewhere.
Like anybody else, they have the choice of taking resources by force (which has a cost of its own) or trade for them.
The problem is that in the 1930s nobody much wanted to buy what Japan had to sell, generally for protectionist reasons. If they couldn’t sell stuff, they wouldn’t have money to buy what they needed. The invasion of China was to a considerable extent a search for markets.
So in 1941 the Japanese had a very real dilemma: Option A - retreat out of China to the empire or even to the home islands. They would be unable to support a modern military, leaving them at the mercy of any power that still had one. They might not even be able to feed their whole population.
Option B - they could strike for an expanded empire large enough to provide both the resources and the markets they needed to support their military and industry.
They were aware Option B was a huge gamble, but to their minds Option A wasn’t even a gamble, just a guarantee of slow or fast decline back to powerlessness.
With B they had a chance, with A none. It’s difficult for me to argue with their analysis given the situation at the time.
Japan has done well since WWII, but that’s because the USA and the rest of world is willing to buy what they have to sell.
“If the Japanese still see themselves as superior to everyone else, why do they seem not to express it as in the past and why the seeming ‘’worship’’ of sorts of things (and sometimes people of American descent) American?”
Although over the years I have had considerable interaction with the Japanese at the business level and my experiences correlate with my comment, this is not an original thought by me. Actually there have been lots of books and articles written about this. So, if this is something you are really interested in you can find all the information you want just by doing a little Googling. I think you will find your journey most interesting :)
Yep, i am intereste in the subject.
Why do I get the impression you know I will discover some things are not as they appear to be.
Rhetorical, I know.
The Japanese missed the really important target in Hawaii: oil storage facilities.
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I have ‘always’ thought they left the storage tanks alone because they believed we would have turned tail and run back to the West Coast, and they could steamed back into a pretty decent Naval and Air facility with fuel in place.
They must have calculated that the U.S. would destroy the facilities before we left. Capturing the Phillipines, Wake and other western Pacific outposts was of much less strategic value than Hawaii. Without U.S. control of Hawaii, Australia is pretty much out of the War, the western Aleutians cannot be held and the U.S. starts the War on it’s own goal line.
Well, I'm going to give you the benefit of the doubt and assume your question is sincere an you're not a flame’er. So, I'll give you a sincere answer.
I'm somewhat of a history buff and enjoy reading about WWII and thereby I suppose coming across articles about Japanese culture, past and present, are natural extensions. Just a few things to consider to get you started; research the word “Gaijin”, not the sanitized version, the original intent. Do a search on Japanese-Koreans; those descended from Koreans brought to Japan during WWII as forced labors, sex slaves for the troops, etc. Check out how these people are treated still, ponder why they are still not given Japanese citizenship. Research the art of subtlety used by Japanese, drives U.S. business people nuts, I think psychiatrists refer to as passive resistance, or some such. Anyway, the obvious is not the obvious with the Japanese. If you want, we can have a follow up after you do some reading on this and I be happy to play...
the only acceptable outcome of the Pacific war was Unconditional Surrender
They must have calculated that the U.S. would destroy the facilities before we left.
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I agree that in a traditional Military Operation this would be a main concern.
However, they supposedly had a lot of ‘agents’ in the area, that were getting a ‘feel’ for our state of mind. I know the ‘sleeping giant’ remark - while probably having been made - was fitted into the ‘proper’ situation by the movie makers.
And the follow up attacks, very probably meant to drive out the ‘round eyed devils’ as the island fortifications they had were secure and not just something put up overnight.
I also agree with your summation of the Hawaii situation, but again if they thought we were of a mind to ‘cut our losses and run’ they may have had selective targets based on that thought.
I guess the real fly on the wall we want to get our hands on is the one that was around for the initial planning discussions right up through the attack.
When you figure that the Japanese limited their attack to Air and an occasional midget submarine it appears they didn’t expect any retaliation etc.... One could imagine at least they would have had a landing force on hand to secure the island - they certainly had the manpower - like I said, the fly on the wall would really be helpful.
Definitely NOT trying to start a ‘food fight’ with you etc, just trying to have a ‘civil’ discussion etc....
I never took your posts as anything other than civil and thought provoking.
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