Unfortunately for the Japanese, they are up against the cruel math of American production and the tyranny of logistics.
Even had they sunk the entire US Fleet at Midway, and somehow taken the island, despite being outnumbered by the defenders, Japan still loses.
They can’t hold Midway, it is too far from Japan to support. It will either be used as target practice for new American carriers, and as a practice for taking a fortified island by the Marines. Or, it will just be left to wither on the vine and starved out.
As far as ships go, the charts on this page tell the tale:
http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
Japan in mid 1942 is at the limit of her expansion, she cannot truly maintain what she has already.
She hopes to fight a decisive battle to force America to the peace table. But after Pearl Harbor, nothing will do that. And time is on the side of the US.
In two years, Japan will be fighting a US Navy that has more aircraft carriers and aircraft, better aircraft carriers and aircraft, and a fleet train that supports them at sea for weeks to months at time.
Japan is doomed, no matter what.
Japan shouldn’t have attacked the US just as Germany shouldn’t have attacked Russia. Both bone-head moves from bone-head dictatorships. On the German side it was Bone-Head One calling all the shots, of course. I’m not too clear on how many bone-heads were calling the shots on the Japanese side.
This is very true. The Japanese Navy were strong believers in Mahanian strategic thought. They believed that only the “decisive battle” could win them their war against the United States. After Pearl Harbor this was a fallacious thought on their part. If they had sunk all three of the American flattops in the Midway battle it would only had strengthened the American resolve all the more. As you said, they were doomed.