If Romney is the nominee, I expect he will pile up electoral votes in states that McCain carried and he might also take some that Obama won in ‘08 when America really knew nothing about him. You can argue that his “blue” state delegates won’t matter in the general but he ought to get quite a few electoral votes in “red” states just by virtue of the R after his name.
Ask yourself this. If Obama couldn’t defeat McCain in certain south and midwest states last time, what has possibly made Obama more electable this time?
Take North Carolina for instance. Obama 49.7%. McCain 49.4%.
Does anybody really think Obama takes it this time around? Even if Ron Paul was the GOP nominee?
Now that's no reason to be complacent. However, the picture is not as dire as some make it out to be. Obama is very beatable this year. Even with a lousy opponent.