Arnie once said that he thought Tiger would match Jack AND him in majors....
Arnie had 7 and Jack 18, so Tiger needs 11 more to match their combined total.
Oddly, this three-year fallow period may actually help his overall major total. He's had to rework both his personal life and his golf game, and the end result may be beneficial. He is only 36, and with the physical conditioning he habitually pursues he probably still has ten or so years left as a consistent contender, with another five or ten after that occasionally contending.