“Many conservatives and Republicans are convinced that there is zero chance Obama would ever launch an invasion of Iran.”
I suspect they are right; there is no money or troops left for such a war, and the hawks haven’t made the case to the American public that there is clear and imminent danger to us that merits such a war. Obama also doesn’t want to explain the fourth attack on a Muslim country is 10 years (it would be the second on his watch).
That is what I was thinking, plus the fact that Obama hasnt made any efforts to improve the military and any changes he has made in the military budget have been to cut it. Not really actions of someone getting ready for war. In addition, you have the fact that bringing back the draft is the sole method any president would have of ensuring that a full fledged ground invasion and occupation of Iran would work, and clearly Americans are not ready to go back to it. Though it is impossible to dismiss the notion that Obama would try something, it is a question of what, exactly.
No American POTUS would do that without a 911 episode with direct links to the mullahs. And, with this asshat it would take more than that.
The idea is over-flowing with logistic and geo-political quicksand....
From where do we launch an invasion? Iraq - we'd have to re-invade them first. Kuwait? They share no border. From the sea? We lack the transport for more than a division...and we'd need at least three. From Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, any of the FSSRs? Nope - not a chance.
And, I do think that Commissar Putin might have something to say about it.