DEBKA file garbage.
Debka is probably predicting, rather than reporting. Their “sources” and accuracy are notoriously bad.
Trying to remember which is the more reliable source:
Debka, or a newspaper horoscope?
http://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/israelus-postpone-joint-military-drill/2012/01/15/
http://www.yiddelenews.com/?p=32506
Debka does report some good information, which they foul up by their poor conjecture and misinterpretations. The bottom line on this:
1) Military exercise cancelled, but soldiers remain.
2) Very large US military buildup in Gulf, with three AC battle groups and a division of ground forces.
3) The US, not just Obama, would prefer that the US do everything, because Israel would not agree to our strategy or p.c. ROE, and they might be a bit quick on the trigger with their nukes.
What was not said:
1) Exercises are cancelled if it looks like the balloon may go up soon.
2) We have put three carrier battle groups in the area before and nothing came of it.
3) We have four submarines filled with conventional cruise missiles, in addition to our cruise missile carrying fleets.
4) The key is activity on the Island of Diego Garcia, where we would launch some of our strategic bombers.
5) What are Russia and China doing?
6) Is Iran preparing to launch across any “red lines”?
And Russia this weekend paraphrased JFK during the Cuban Missle Crisis declaring any attack on Tehran will be considered an attack on Russia.
I think people are missing the simple reality that “it’s all about Obama.”
Oil price increases, and their rippling effects on the economy will take the edge off of any supposed (nominal) economic growth this year, which will cause consumer and investor sentiment to fall, which will kill all hopes Obama has for re-election in ten months.
It is not complicated at all.