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I know my evidence is anecdotal, but I’m here to tell you there’s trouble in Obama’s black constituency if what I see and hear is widespread.

I think that disenchantment with Obama is widespread. Case in point:

I went home to California in April 2010 for my dad's 80th birthday celebration. It was a gathering of the clan, so to speak, and all of my immediate family, including nieces and nephews were there.

During the four days I was out there, not a single one of them mentioned Obama's name - even when we got into a political discussion over dinner. What I found surprising, is that for once, they all sat quietly and listened as I gave them my take on the current political scene, and specifically how Obama and the Democrats in Congress were taking the country over a cliff.

In times past, they would have ganged up on me, and beat me down with the usual liberal debate tactics. Not this time. I could tell that they were honestly confused and disappointed by Obama's many failures and departures from traditional American leadership.

One last thing....there wasn't a single Obama bumper sticker in sight. Telling...

I agree with you—yes, there’s widespread disenchantment with Obama. But whether black people vote against him this year depends entirely on who we run against him. They aren’t going to be of the “anybody but Obama” mindset unless they’re die-hard ex-military or broken-glass conservatives.

I do have some black friends who are really angry and disappointed with him and would never vote for him. Have some others who are angry and disappointed with him, but they aren’t going to vote for a fat pink white-haired Southerner, no matter how smart he is. Others are angry and disappointed with Obama, but even if they don’t want to vote for him, they’re appalled by some of the racist stuff they see about him and about his wife.