Posted on 01/06/2012 7:09:23 PM PST by Signalman
According to the latest Rasmussen Poll, 21% — more than one in five — Democrats have abandoned the Party since Obama’s election as president. While most have become Independents, identification with the Republican Party has also risen not only since 2008 but also even since the GOP’s 2010 victory.
Rasmussen, who tracks voters’ party identification (self-described) every month, shows that Democratic Party identification, has dropped by eight points (or 21%) since Obama’s election in November, 2008 while Republican Party identification has risen by three points over the same period. Despite speculation in the liberal media that the Republicans in Congress have mishandled their mandate since winning the House in 2010, the Republican edge over the Democratic Party has grown from 1.3% in November of 2010 to 2.7% in December of 2011.
Changes in party identification are the most fundamental – and important – measure of political opinion in the country. They are like tectonic plates that shift beneath the surface of the political earth, sending quakes through the system. A shift of such an order of magnitude will rank high on the political Richter scale in 2012.
So dramatic a shift, totaling eleven points since Obama’s election (Dems down by 8, Republicans up by 3) means that had Obama faced McCain in the current political environment, he would have won by five rather than losing by six.
But even that doesn’t tell the story. Surveys of Independents find that they have long since jumped from the Obama ship. His job approval among Independents consistently ranks in the low 30s. He cannot expect much relief from that corner.
All these stats point to a mammoth upset in the making in the 2012 election, sweeping Republicans into the White House and delivering control of the Senate by a good margin. Already, Republicans are likely to take over Democratic seats in Virginia, Florida, Nebraska, Missouri, New Mexico, Montana, North Dakota, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin. They may lose in Massachusetts and will probably hold on to their seats in Arizona and Nevada despite the retirement of their incumbents there. That means a GOP dominated Senate by the margin 56-44.
If these data cause Republicans (hopefully wealthy ones) in Washington State, West Virginia, Wisconsin, New Jersey, and Minnesota to consider entering U.S. Senate races against the Democratic incumbents in those states, it could cause the GOP to get sixty votes in the Senate. The party identification data indicates that this goal is distinctly within reach if we get good candidates in a few more states.
Don’t listen to the media induced pessimism. A gigantic upset is in the making!
This is temporary. They are registering as Republicans in order to Vote in the Republican Primary. They will then re-register as Dems.
Their priority is to knock out NEWT. That’s who they most fear.
They will support Romney or Santorum depending on which dynamic in a specific primary (meaning how the stealth Dems vote in South Carolina, may be different in how they vote in Florida)
Most likely they are leaning towards Santorum in an attempt to get rid of Newt (which won’t work, Newt isn’t leaving) and then think they can knock out Santorum, in order to get Romney to the convention.
Go Newt !!!! Don’t be fooled by these temporary Dem crossovers who are only in it to ensure the least Conservative candidate wins the Primary. They will lose in their attempt.
But I won't vote for another member of the expletive-deleted ruling class just because the expletive-deleted candidate has an R after his/her name.
FWIW, I’m a conservative who’s still a registered ‘Rat. Wanna know why? Because the GOP is no bloody different.
The Ruling Class [Kindle Edition] Angelo M. Codevilla (Author), Rush Limbaugh (Author, Introduction)
If your still a registered democrat how can you help us in primaries to vote in a “real” conservative?
That presumes the GOP will nominate one. My bet is they won’t. Right now I’m on my knees nightly praying for, among other things, a brokered convention. I’m hoping the delegates will channel their inner founding fathers and stage a rebellion.
Great points (no argument from me), HeartlandOfAmerica. Interesting...thanks for posting/linking, mewzilla.
You’re welcome.
We are on the road to a third party, whether people believe it or not. The GOP and DIMS just haven't figured out who are the WHIGs just yet - maybe BOTH...
If Dick Morris’s record of making predictions wasn’t so gosh darn awful, this would be exciting news. I bet Senator Angle, how beat Harry Reid by 10 points, is glad to read it though.
Mewzilla probably lives in a state like mine where we can request a ballot for any party. There's no penalty for being affiliated with a party other than the GOP, so we can vote in their primaries and other elections.
OTOH, that's how the dims can cross over and vote for scumney and rupaul so easily in many states.
Sure it's possible. They registered as Republicans and are voting for Romney now.
A liberal by any other name will smell as sour.
This smells of disinformation. These so called disaffected Dems will vote for 0bama in 2012, every last stinkin’ one of ‘em!
Very good news.
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