[Texas Eagle]

Fertility is falling at even faster rates - indeed, at rates never before registered anywhere - in the Muslim world.

Don't go trying to put a happy face on this.

[FlyVet]

I wonder if, when Caucasians all over the world become the poor, oppressed minority, they will begin to reproduce like rabbits, and start the cycle again?

[Tijeras_Slim]

Spengler is brilliant, but he scares the daylights out of me.

[oldbrowser]

For the first time in world history, the birth rate of the whole developed world is well below replacement, and a significant part of it has passed the demographic point of no return.

Come on, We started with only two people. How can we be past the point of no return?

[rellimpank]

—a horde of the little darlings aren’t nearly so cute when they cease being necessary for agricultural hep—

[knews_hound]

Marking

[impimp]

Great article - except he is wrong about the Muslims. Their low productivity will not really hurt them when the population pyramid gets a little more inverted. This is because they don’t have the welfare state that the West has.

I want a President who will discuss this.

[Travis McGee]

Fascinating article, well worth the full read.

[dog breath]

The one thing I do not worry about is that people can breed. Will the world change due to the conditions of the world? Certainly it will, cultures and nations will die fortunes be lost, wars, famine and all the evils of society will occur but people will make something new eventually. Populations have recovered from a variety of crashes and if they don't then some other population takes over eventually. Se habla Espanol? We can see where that is going here. The thing to keep in mind with that is that the English colonists became something different from English people and the Mexicans here will become something different from Mexicans once here. Eventually everybody will have a German peasant, a twist of Irish and a dash of Mexican mixed with everything else here. The survivors and the fertile inherit the earth, biology eventually proves stronger then wealth. Change is the one constant in the universe besides God and you might see the hand of God in change.

[Jack Hydrazine]

The movie, “Children Of Men” posited a disease that destroys globally the fertility of the world. How about a movie where people globally decide to just not have children?

[Chode]

the goathumpers are moving back to the stoneage as fast as possible and have no way to feed/support ONE child let alone the 2.1 replacement scale required for growth...

insha allah

[Age of Reason]

world's population will fall by as much as a fifth between the middle and the end of the 21st century, by far the worst decline in human history.

And the earth will still be overpopulated.

The decline in birthrate is a self-correcting way of bringing human population back to its natural balance in nature.

Because of overpopulation, we've had to develop technology to make more of less, but throughout we ignore man's evolved nature, which is not in accord with modern living.

This conflict of man's nature with his modern artificial environment, works to depress his urge to reproduce, hence the declining population in fully industrialized societies.

[Blue Ink]

“As an immigrant nation we regenerate ourselves. We bear no baggage from a tragic past.”

He has no understanding whatsoever of America. We’re not an immigrant nation, we’re a nation of citizens.

And really? No baggage from a tragic past? How about the Civil War? Battles over flags rage to this day. And what about World Wars I and II?

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

I hate it when panic mongers use straight line statistics to predict the future. Especially with demographics.

The scoundrel and hysteric “Dr.” Paul R. Ehrlich, butterfly expert, went hog wild with this, with his book The Population Bomb, in the 1970s. And it was the precursor to the Man Made Global Warming scam. Importantly, it should be remembered that Ehrlich’s “solutions” are almost identical to the MMGW-crowds “solutions”. i.e., all power to socialists and money and resources taken away from wealthy nations.

And Ehrlich was not only wrong, but he was wrong about *everything*. Every single one of his hysterical predictions failed. And he has *not* had to pay any price for his efforts to cause worldwide deprivation and economic ruin. In fact, the MMGW-crowd welcome him with open arms as a kindred spirit.

The study of demographics is not easy, but animals and humans have demographic rules they abide by, that happen automatically and without assistance or conscious help.

Which almost guarantees the failure of straight line predictions.

[grumpygresh]

These demographics will still take time to achieve their full effect. God’s timetable is probably much shorter. Diverse and oppostional cultures are collectively manifesting a hopeless pessimism that will lead to the final conflict.

[Vince Ferrer]

Having large families has been the traditional retirement plan throughout history. Have several children, some of which will survive, and they will then take care of you when you get to old to take care of yourself. Having a few extra kids reduces the burden on them to take care of you. Raising children in this environment was not expensive, especially compared to the benefits that you get with extra labor and old age benefits.

However, modern society has replaced this formula with social security schemes. We can now save and invest for our own retirement, so in this environment, children are a high cost burden, interfering with our saving (and spending). But a critical mistake has been made in this formula. We are not all saving exclusively for our own retirement. What I will get from social security is not what I put in to it, but a designated amount coming from current despositors, the young. So what we really did is create a system where we got rid of our children because we thought we didn't need them, but are still relying on someone's children to pay for our retirements. The demographic implosion will cause the old to lose their benefits. If everyone had ben saving for their own retirements and no one else's, demographic fluctuations would not matter.

We in the US will be luckier in the future, however, because we do welcome immigrants. Closed societies, like Japan and the middle east, will be hit much harder. We also should be seriously working on improving our productivity through innovation and robotics.

And if anyone thinks a demographic implosion will not affect wealth and standard of living, here is an interesting talk:

When ideas have sex

[central_va]

But Islamic society is even more fragile. As Muslim fertility shrinks at a rate demographers have never seen before, it is converging on Europe's catastrophically low fertility as if in time-lapse photography. The average 30-year-old Iranian woman comes from a family of six children, but she will bear only one or two children during her lifetime. Turkey and Algeria are just behind Iran on the way down, and most of the other Muslim countries are catching up quickly.

I'd like to see proof of this.