So are you saying that it’s similar to correctly calculating the future values of the delta, gamma and vega of an option over the distance of the move while subtracting the theta over the given time of the move, while making sure skew and kurtosis doesn’t screw you on the implied volatility to correctly estimate it’s value at the end of the move?
Which doesn’t including predicting a turn of the market and the ultimate length of the move, because that isn’t quantifiable and is really a matter of weighting two opposing forces, their relationship and their ultimate momentum to create the move, at the same time you’re estimating the value of the option of the and it’s likely value of the end of that move?
Gee, I can do math too.
The difference between you guys and me is that I’m not threatened by younger people, I embrace them and teach them what I know and tell them to build on it.
Because the older I get, the more I realize the less I know, and that with every tick of the clock I become more of a relic each and every day. Anybody truly in the game feels the same clock ticking.
Nice chatting with you boys, I needed some light work before bed to get my mind sharp for the market open tomorrow. Thanks for being my pawns.
In other words, his mommy flashed the basement light which means he has five minutes to put his jammies on and go to bed.
No, I'm not. Because you haven't defined the time period you're playing with, nor how close to expiry you like to get when making your bets.
...and for that matter, you haven't even defined what commodities you're hedging; let alone the size of your positions.
Seems to me Black-Scholes got LTCM in trouble; make sure you haven't bit off more than you can chew (i.e. if you'd already *made* your killing you wouldn't be babbling about having to keep up with developments or risk getting fired; and B-S options theory is hardly "new").
Gee, I can do math too.
If you could do math, you'd add the numbers for your 80-90 hours per week for 10 years to figure out your average hourly rate for all the trading.
Hope it's been worth it.
The difference between you guys and me is that I’m not threatened by younger people, I embrace them and teach them what I know and tell them to build on it.
Which is no doubt why you keep shouting at Eaker that you'd learn and take his job: because you are SO successful at Black-Scholes that you no longer need to work?
Myself, I'm not threatened by younger people. I get annoyed by poseurs on FR.
And that applies to generational threads as well as Perrywinkles.
Because the older I get, the more I realize the less I know, and that with every tick of the clock I become more of a relic each and every day. Anybody truly in the game feels the same clock ticking.
Which no doubt is why you *attempted* to goad us, it's a way of trying to convince yourself of your own relevance and virility.
Here's a clue: Not everyone is motivated by the same things. And not everyone measures themselves by whether they are "in the game" : for those who don't play, it's called the rat race. I've seen enough to know, the things that matter in life are your relation to Christ, and your relations with family. Think of Ty Cobb on his deathbed, kissing his certificates for $12 million in Coca-Cola stock.
You can't take it with you: so don't try so hard to get it.
Nice chatting with you boys, I needed some light work before bed to get my mind sharp for the market open tomorrow. Thanks for being my pawns.
I'll have forgotten about you within ten minutes. But that doesn't let you off from making sure the rest of YOUR life is in order.
Cheers!