It wasn't until just a couple of months before the election in 1980 that Reagan actually started getting real traction. He certainly wasn't a shoe-in when he started his campaign, or even really at the time of the convention. The MSM had savaged him all during the campaign, and went all out on him, when he won the nomination. He was helped by the fact that folks had just had enough of Carter, and the misery he caused.
That exists today too, and may help counter the dumbed-down electorate I was talking about. Obama is fiercely unpopular, so maybe I'm worrying too much and the GOP will win regardless of the nominee. Especially if that's the case (and even if it isn't) here's hoping they don't their usual thing and pick some weasely milquetoast RINO appeaser because they're afraid to run a conservative and because it's "his turn". That would truly be a wasted opportunity, an election when you literally couldn't lose and you end up with Willard the Giant Rat or the equivalent.
That's tough to argue with.