[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

Since the early part of the 20th Century, America has had an overabundance of food. So it is always very tricky trying to predict both food prices and availability. The last three shortages with high prices show some of the range of variables.

1) UBEC. With the success of the Carter-era oil embargo, the short-lived Union of Banana Exporting Countries (really, they do exist), decided to stick it to the wealthy people of wealth, by jacking up the price of bananas. They did this when there was a glut of bananas (interesting mental image there) on the market, and Americans shrugged and stopped eating as many bananas. The embargo collapsed, for that and other reasons. The bananas must flow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UBEC

2) The great sugar shortage. Most Americans saw this in restaurants, as they removed sugar packets from tables, and asked patrons to request it if they wanted it. It was caused by high USG tariffs to protect the US sugar industry, on top of a poor harvest. Didn’t last.

Today, a lot more countries grow a lot more sugar cane, and the US grows a lot of sugar beets, though it had a set back recently when some federal judge decided he didn’t like sugar beets, especially if they were GM sugar beets, so he ordered that nobody could grow them. A bit of a problem since almost all sugar beets grown in the US are GM.

But other countries are just itching to sell us as much sugar as we want, so no real biggie there.

3) High priced coffee. In 1977, Brazil got hit by a bad freeze that wiped out most of their crop. But since then, production in other countries has taken much of their market share.

[greeneyes]

In general I remember living through the shortages and inflation during the Nixon & Carter years. However, if the dollar collapses like Argentina(that's where we will be if this spending keeps up or if Obama care is implemented), then you are going to need a wheelbarrow of dollars to buy food stuff.

Also when you have various local governments suggesting that things like salt, sugar, and potatoes should be banned or forbidden in schools and restaurants, don't count on anything. I buy sugar, salt, and coffee every time it goes on sale, and when one bag is empty, I replace it with 2.

I can grow wheat, and potatoes(unless they ban that too), but sugar, salt and coffee not so much. If things really get bad, I can stretch the coffee with chicory which grows wild all over here, and I could even grow beets and make sugar. But salt? I buy lots of salt, I might have to use it for old time preservative methods and it lasts forever.