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To: RummyChick
So far, I have been right. It is far worse than they were letting on..It just takes awhile for the info to get out.

I know this is a complicated thought, but no, you were not right. Even if you happened to guess exactly what was going to happen, that doesn't make you "right".

One can believe all sorts of things that have no evidence, and in the end, turn out to have been right.

The people who were right were the people who didn't jump to conclusions when there wasn't enough evidence, that kept an open mind to the different possibilities, and that weighed all the evidence for accuracy and application.

It's words like "admit" that show the fallacy of the "I was right" argument. Someone doesn't "admit" something they just learned, even if others might have guessed what they would find.

I think the best "fictitious" illustration of the fallacy of confusing a correct guess for being "right" is the show "House". Most of the time he figures out what was wrong by examining the evidence -- he is "right" in the end; before then, he keeps getting it "wrong", but based on the best evidence he has available. He never "admits" that the real problem was the last one he figures out, because there is nothing to "admit", just better decisions based on more evidence.

But sometimes, he just "thinks" he might know the answer. And once in a while, he's correct. But his friends still point out that he was not "right". He was just lucky.

So, when you might have said a month ago that the core was melted, a few people might have said "you are wrong", and they would not have been "right". But most people would say "we don't have the evidence to claim that it's melted down -- the facts are not there to reach that conclusion.

THOSE are the people who were right.

What does TEPCO gain if it knows the core has melted, but waits a month to reveal that? The core is still melted, and they have the same job to do. You could argue the first few days that they might have been trying to hold up their stock shares while they sold out -- but that time has long gone.

It would be foolish to not act on the best evidence they have at this point, because that is the best way to fix the problem.

BTW, I'm not agreeing with your assessment here of what they have "admitted". There are so many blogs saying "Japan says this" and "TEPCO admits that" where i can't find any actual evidence to back up the claims, that I simply won't express an opinion unless I actually see a TEPCO press release.

12 posted on 05/14/2011 1:47:04 PM PDT by CharlesWayneCT
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To: CharlesWayneCT

There was and IS plenty of evidence to show there was a meltdown.

I am not going to argue this..I think anyone and I mean ANYONE who thinks TEPCO hasn’t been lying is a flat out fool.

They have shown over and over and over and over again that they have a history of cover up. There is also a history of dubious activity by the government.

There is PLENTY of evidence that shows TEPCO has not been forthright.

Just keep being a fool and trusting everything they say.

I was right..and will continue to be right about this.


13 posted on 05/14/2011 5:40:12 PM PDT by RummyChick
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