RE: Because then they can include noise, irrelevancies and / or bubbles in very short term data
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I am not your opponent on this, I HOPE YOU’RE RIGHT. But There is a reason why the price of Gold and Silver have been rising the past 10 years. At the rate our currency is being debased and the crushing debt and entitlement adding up to the hundreds of trillons this country is facing, I am not an optimist regarding the TREND.
Let’s hope it is not irreversible, but that will all depend on what happens the next election cycle.
Earlier this morning, gold was down over 1%. Does that mean GDP magically grew by 1% this morning? I didn’t think so.
Manufacturing and gold have very little to do with one another, I think.
The U.S. Dollar and gold have a LOT to do with one another, I think.
I’ve been attacking Helicopter Ben Bernanke on FR for years for printing too many dollars. I’m a monetarist, and gold has been flashing red warning signs for the whole last decade. I’ve made a lot of money betting against Ben. And my portfolio remains substantially positioned against the U.S. Dollar.
The trend for the U.S. economy generally is horrible, including, excluding or singling out manufacturing. Helicopter Ben, 0bamanomics, 0bamaCare, and structural fiscal deficits forever make the U.S. a horrible place to invest.
I have a full 40% of my investments in international stocks and bonds that are unhedged, so that dollar devaluation mostly won’t hurt them. I have some additional gold stocks. The only government bonds I have are Inflation Protected Securities. Everything else is in stocks, which can raise prices, at least, and many of which have substantial international exposure.
I’m really worried. But I’m not particularly worried about Manufacturing. I’m worried we’re effectively bankrupt as a nation, and the stuff is hitting the fan faster and faster.
For example, what happens the day the bond rating agencies downgrade U.S. Government debt? KA BOOOOOOOMMMM!!!!!!