Posted on 01/21/2011 12:33:33 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
WUWT readers may recall the story by the Daily Mail about the new supercomputer.
The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain’s worst polluters.
The massive machine – the UK’s most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory – was installed in the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter, Devon.
With a total peak performance approaching 1 PetaFlop — equivalent to over 100,000 PCs and over 30 times more powerful than what is in place today. It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.
The Met Office supercomputer - Image: Daily Mail
With all that power, surely it must produce some quality digital reckoning.
Bishop Hill has located the “supposedly secret” winter forecast sent to the British government. The details of the forecast produced are nothing short of astounding.
When the kerfuffle over the Met Office’s winter forecast blew up, I wrote to the Quarmby team to see if they had actually received a copy of the Met Office’s cold-winter forecast, which was apparently sent to the Cabinet Office. It is alleged that the forecast should have provided sufficient warning to the government machine to ensure that everyone was ready for what happened in December.
Today, rather later than I expected, the Quarmby team have responded and have helpfully provided a copy of the forecast:
Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11
This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change.
Temperature
3 in 10 chance of a mild start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a cold start
Precipitation
3 in 10 chance of a wet start
3 in 10 chance of an average start
4 in 10 chance of a dry start
Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season.
Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.
Yes that seems clear, doesn’t it? Seeing the numbers produced, personally, I think this less expensive computer, using Digital Advanced Reckoning Technology (DART) can do the job of making odds equally well, using less power, less space, and less money:
DART - Digital Advanced Reckoning Technology
I really love this one:
Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.
I think its been done, something about “March coming in like a lion and out like a lamb” IIRC. But really, I never thought that a “mild end to winter” could be categorized as a “risk”.
But this forecast for the start of winter still doesn’t square with the Met Office map output.
Here’s the Met Office supercomputer enhanced model output forecast from October 2010: 
See the story about that controversy here and here
fyi
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Ranger Rick says:
I think they should rename the the supercomputer the “Climate Research Alarmism Prognosticator” or better know as CRAP!
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Schrodinger's Cat says:
Julia Slingo of the Met Office is complaining that they don’t have nearly enough computing power. Four times more would be good…
http://www.nature.com/news/2010/101230/full/news.2010.685.html
Unbelievable!
2010 was coldest year since 1986 says Met Office
The new statistics show that the mean temperature in 2010 was 7.96C (46.4F), the twelfth coldest on record. The coldest year in the 100 year record is 1919 and 1963, when temperatures plunged to 7.45 (45.4F) and the next coldest is 1986 when it was 7.69C (45.8F).
Bastardi just nailed the current Warming/Cooling situation in a new video. Very somber update. We are now sailing in uncharted waters. At least they are now uncharted in the modern recorded sense. The dramatic Global Cooling that has just occurred over the past two months has never occurred in the modern record. Nothing even similar, apparently.
Bastardi: "A La Nina That Is King?... More Cold to Follow!"
Here is the song that is used in the title for the above video. First time I ever heard the song. Very funny reference, unfortunately. Imagine that Al Gore is singing and instead of a waitress he tries to go home with a masseuse.
Warren Zevon Lawyers, Guns and Money
Here is the link to the Global Surface Temperature Anomaly map mentioned. Sourced from www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue .
Note that very large pool of cold air in the Yukon. That arrived in Minnesota this morning. From Fort Yukon Alaska (~ -57 F) to International Falls Minnesota (~ -44 F). BTW - Apparently quite a few daily low records were set in Minnesota. International Falls just had its coldest day in 100 years according to Accuweather.
1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.
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Let’s see. That statement is correct if each home uses 1200 watts. 1200 watts is about one hair dryer.
In megaWatt Hours, the statement is close to true. Over a 24 hour period the average household uses approximately 1.5 kWH. You don't run your hairdryer 24/7.
Let me clarify my clarification. Over a 24 hour period, the average home uses 1.5 kW per hour. So running the supercomputer for 24 hours uses about the same as 1,000 homes use in 24 hours.
And in London they actually have pay as you go electric control boxes in many flats. Everything is smaller in Europe. Has something to do with those World Wars they like to wage.
CRAP does seem quite appropriate.
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