Gold Isn't in a Bubble (the real issue is the future of our monetary system and fiat currency)

On Monday morning Bloomberg issued a report on gold as part of its “The Dark Side of Gold” series. It's important to note this isn’t the first time the news organization has attempted a hit-piece on gold. I wrote about this a year ago and identified the cases and examples of Bloomberg’s gold bashing.

The crux of the series is how gold ETFs are responsible for gold’s rise and are contributing to a bubble. It's insinuated that because the ETFs are easily tradeable, a torrent of sell orders could cause gold to fall sharply, a la 1980.

Gold’s rise actually has very little to do with the gold ETF (GLD). It really is a non-factor when you consider any of the following reasons: Threat of sovereign debt defaults, debt monetization in Europe, Japan and US, 0% to 1% interest rates, commodity bull market, and falling gold production. The gold ETF is an effect of the bull market, not a cause. The same is true with mutual funds during the bull market in the 1980s and 1990s.

In the two-minute preview video, Bloomberg says that prior to the gold ETF, only “conspiracy theorists” were buying gold and it cost a “fortune” because of holding costs and commissions. This is nothing more than failed hyperbole, seeking to demonize gold and gold bulls. I’m not an expert on the exact goings-on of the physical market but I’m sure that at that time it didn’t “cost a fortune” to buy gold. Meanwhile, any conspiracy theorists have clearly made a lot of money.

Mark Williams of Boston University makes the case that gold is in a bubble, but provides zero evidence. He was probably perfect for this series, as he wrote an editorial in November about how the "idea of a gold standard is best relegated to the dustbin of history." The only thing that will be relegated to the dustbin of history is our fiat currency system. It’s happened before and will happen again.

Finally, they trot out the George Soros quote of gold being the "ultimate asset bubble.” There needs to be some clarification of this point. Soros is increasing his gold position, which is already his largest position. In reality, he’s not saying it's the ultimate bubble. Soros believes gold will become the ultimate bubble and that's why gold is his largest position.

In reality, making gold the focus misses and obfuscates the real issues at hand. This is about the future of our monetary system and fiat currency. I can understand that gold could fall $300 at any time and the perception of it lacking utility, but explain to us how the fiat system will survive. No fiat currency has ever survived the “dustbin of history.”

Fiat currencies have value based on the ability of government to meet its obligations. The US’s interest expense is now more than $400 billion and currently 17% of tax revenue. This is with interest rates at historical lows and a national debt of $14 trillion. That doesn’t include agency debt of $3 trillion and an estimated $2.8 trillion from the states.

The situation is going to get worse. The states will likely need support in 2011 and perhaps a bailout by 2013. The continuation of the Bush tax cuts adds another $700 billion to the deficit over the next two years. The most important variable of all, interest rates, is now moving in the wrong direction.

Two years from now, the US government would be dealing with more than $17 trillion in debt and at least a 50% rise in interest payments. Even if interest rates hold around 4%, you're still looking at an interest expense equivalent to 25% of tax revenue. And that accounts for growth in tax revenue.

This speaks to why the Fed is monetizing the debt under the guise of economic stimulus and quantitative easing. It has to, and it's just getting started. In the coming months and years, the Fed will have to monetize more as the debt burden grows larger. Moreover, the Fed will periodically have to buy bonds to try to keep rates down. As rates rise, so does the debt burden. The perception is that rising rates is bearish for gold. While this can be true in the very short run, it's quite the opposite in the larger picture if you have a huge debt burden.

We're in a new era. This isn’t the 1980s or 1990s. The typical stockbroker, financial planner, and mainstream publication don’t get it. They’ve barely figured out that this is a bull market for hard assets. Those who assume gold is a bubble should study monetary history. Governments going broke and the restructuring of debts and monetary systems is nothing new.

Certainly gold is volatile and inherently risky. It can and will have small and large setbacks along the way. However, the greatest risk is being unprepared for the inflation tsunami that lies ahead.

Freedom4US wrote:

nobody has any gold today to speak of, so how does your modern 2.0 confiscation work?

Your premise, "Nobody has any gold to speak of" is flawed. Listen to talk radio any day, or watch any news channel (especially Fox News). Notice all the advertisers selling gold? Someone is buying the stuff or they wouldn't be paying to advertise it.

They're even selling the stuff in vending machines at high end malls.

Confiscation will be more difficult in todays times. I doubt many people will voluntarily give it up. And smart buyers are buying at least part of their Gold reserves with smaller (on coin at a time) cash purchases. I've heard that one of the recent laws places new reporting requirements on bullion purchases. I can't remember if it was the Stimulus, Obamacare or the Financial Regulation law, but one of those (and the rules and regulations adopted under that law) requires a 20+ page reporting form for every bullion purchase after a certain time.

IMHO, the dollar can fluctuate against other currencies, but gold, being real money will continue upward. If you guess right, you could make money against the Euro, Yen, ect, but gold will still be the safety standard for people that see the coming calamity. In the end, the Bible says gold and silver will not do us any good. In a world economic crash, IMHO, beans and bullets will be money.

The other softs will also be soaring because of worldwide shortages. IMO, there will be no safe haven. We are doomed to live like a 3rd world country, like the socialists have been dreaming for decades. If you think about it, if we go down, so does everyone else, because we have been propping them up since WWII. When a loaf of bread is a days wage, then the Bible will have been fulfilled. The only question is are we working for a dollar a day or $10000 a day?

In a scenario where we get to keep our gold, how long do you think you could go to the market and pay for something in gold and still live to get home? Someone will see and follow and take. If we still have "banking", would you put your life savings into a bank and trust that the decimal place won;t get messed up? IMO, you will never see your gold again.

As far as Fort Knox goes, I'm glad to see someone finally knows how much is there cause I've never been able to find out for sure. Are you sure? Ron Paul wants to find out and he can't. Is that gold promised to the "GLD" ETF? Is there enough gold to cover the GLD ETF? I don't think so. there is already rumblings about a shortage to fill the commodity if you take delivery. When you buy a wheat future, you believe that if all else fails, you could take delivery, not so with gold.

As far as the lead standard, IMO, it will come just as it has many times before. I have some old DVD's showing Hitler and others on Krystal Nacht. Why would human behavior be different now? Christ would have us reach out to help our neighbor, but alas, we are fallen and have been since the Garden. We are incapable of behaving any other way. Even if you began as a Christian with charity to all, that would last until you saw your family suffer, then all bets are off. Be sure you will lose your fillings soon enough.

It may be possible to pull off a recovery and kick the can down the road once again, but at $20 trillion in debt when Obama leaves office, the can looks more like a 55 gallon drum. I don't think we will kick it very far. We still owe $100 trillion in promises coming due soon.

What is meant by that, the official on-the-books holdings is a pretty nice stash, but represents (at current market price) something around 300 billions.

Do the math. That amount is roughly equal to say, the market capitalization of ONE large stock company, say AAPL. That’s
right - Apple computer stock is worth the equivalent of Fort Knox.

You guys are extrapolating a world that is long gone, in this case the 1930s, and that somehow, the government is going to pull an FDR and confiscate some little kids coin collection and scattered stashes to make payroll after initiating gold standard 2.0. It doesn’t work that way, because the math doesn’t add up, never mind the fact that politicians won’t be constrained by a “barbarous relic” such as a gold standard. That’s the whole point of throwing money around via “democracy” - buying votes, or if you will, an advance auction of stolen goods. The point being of course,
a gold standard currency means that the government through the treasury
stands ready to both buy and sell at a fixed price. That isn’t going to happen.

I have reminded several people about FDR taking the gold,

At a time when most people still trusted the government a huge percentage of privately held gold was not turned in. My grandmother kept hers, and gave it to her grandchildren 30 years later with a warning story about evil politicians like FDR.

Now try to imagine how much LESS the voluntary cooperation with a "turn in your gold" order would be. Near zero.

Now try to imagine the police action needed to try to confiscate peoples gold by using legal police methods. Warrents issued on sworn testimony, etc. A complete non-starter.

Now try to imagine the Feds deputizing the local police to go get gold from suspected hoarders. In my limited experience the ratio of Gold Hoarders to Gun Nuts is 1:1.

Contemplate the phrase "line in the sand" and think about how you would react to news of jackboots going door-to-door.

In short, your idea that they can do it again is silly. It makes me chuckle!

Just replace "gold" in your scenario with heroin. When gold is outlawed, who are you going to trade or sell your gold to? They may be an agent or turn you in for a reward. You will get followed home and your gold taken. What we are talking about is a fascist state. They have more ways of confiscating than you have of hiding it. I wouldn't flaunt my gold anymore than I would haul a bag of dope around town.

I do agree it will be more about lead than gold at that time though. If you have no currency, something will substitute for barter purposes. Otherwise it's anarchy and murder. No one will watch their family starve when you have the ability to take what you need.

As far as Obama confiscating gold, I give him a month to have half and 3 months to have 90% of it. He will have his personal army of knuckle draggers to inform on you or just break your leggs to get the info. North Korea pretty much gets what they want with no back talk, I don't see America any different after about 2-3 weeks of bloodshed. They have tanks, night vision, drones and stuff we don't even know about. To pretend a .308 will defeat the finest military on earth is a bit much. 200 patriots hole up in a compound somewhere will be met with an A-10 and a couple of 500 pounders. Just watch a few film clips on Afghanistan and see what the rags have to put up with. One could almost feel pity for them as they last about 45 seconds in a battle with the US. I have to wonder how many even complete 2 missions before they are pink mist.

Needless to say your vote is the most powerful possession a citizen has. Second to our voting properly would be educating our military and police about posse comitatus.

Well we agree that voting and educating fellow citizens is important. But we disagree on much else.

Substitute “heroin” for “gold” and it’s my point that’s made, not yours, isn’t it. Despite the umpteen trillion worldwide war on heroin over the last 50 years it’s everywhere. And of course those with heroin who come into the governments sights are either pathetic junkies or many low level dealers without much education, ethics or experience.

Gold owners are by in large neither junkies nor low level street criminals, so will be an altogether more difficult group to deal with should push come to shove. There are many advantages to being righteous - from public opinion to inner strength that go with this fact.

I think we also agree that confiscation of gold would be an obvious symbol to everyone that we are living in a fascist state. Perhaps *the* obvious symbol if done in conjunction with a massive gun confiscation.

Once it is clearly seen by a majority, or even a sizable minority of citizens that FedGov are the new Nazis then everything gets much harder for them. There are a million little ways to make life hard for them. Ask the rulers of the USSR, which certainly had every fascist control mechanism you can think of, but still lost.

I’m not sure who “Obama’s personal army of knuckle draggers” are, but I’m pretty sure they are not the commissioned officers of the US Army and Marines and the many volunteers serving under them. If Obama want’s to deputize his ACORN scum to go house-to-house searching for gold, well all I can say is millions of Americans would be gleefully happy with that.

Despite all the tanks, night-vision and what not the “rags” as you call them control most of the country on the ground. In a year or two we’ll leave and they will have essentially won. Yes, some have been killed by drones or special forces, but apparently not near enough to bring the thing to the conclusion we’d like. There are probably 100 American patriots willing to fight fascism in America for every active Taliban member, maybe 1000.

And that’s before you even begin to consider the many “disloyal” officers, oath-keepers, sabatours, turn-coat spec-ops units, and cells within the army that will drastically reduce it’s efficiency. It’s hard to fight a war with an Army that is in rebellion (Vietnam).

Many of us live in urban areas. Obama is not going to drop a “500 pounder” on some suburb or city.

So, I stand by my prediction that gold confiscation is not going to happen and if in some misguided moment of channeling FDR it is tried it will be a complete and utter failure. Just like heroin confiscation has proven to be, as you say.

Anyway, disagreeing is part of what makes FR interesting. Have a nice day. I’m off to work.

We really don't disagree that much, but just for argument's sake, how is it with things as bad as they are, Obama could get re elected? How does he even have 40% approval? If you live in an urban setting, you live slap dab in the middle of his knuckle dragging army. A sample was seen at the voting place in Mass. holding a club. There are many more than you think.

I just look back at history and see many cultures fail to take out Hitler, Mao, and others, before complete collapse of freedom. What I'm saying is, even in America, we could have difficulty defending ourselves against the tide of idiots that love Obama. When Hitler took over Germany there were about 3% registered Nazi's. There will be at least 30% of America that will be willing to die for Obama's dream society. It may very well be difficult to confiscate America's gold, but I'm saying it's been done in history before.

In Revelations, the Bible tells us that we will not be able to buy and sell without a mark showing our allegiance. With no mark, you and your family will be arrested and your "stuff" confiscated, and you and your family most likely executed. Taking the mark buys a trip to hell and refusing the mark is the end. I'm just saying that an absolute power grab has been done before and will be done again. I'm sure there will be many fighting patriots, but the overwhelming force will be on the side of those wanting "law and order". I have neighbors that would turn me in to the government in a heartbeat if they saw my gun collection. I even had a long time friend make the comment while helping me move, "Why do you need all these guns?" I said this is my collection. I'm a collector. He said why don't I take up golf? He sort of got distant to me for years after that. He has since decided I'm not a danger to anyone, but for awhile, our friendship was strained. There will be neighbor on neighbor informing, especially if a reward is involved.

I still believe that if gold becomes illegal, you won't be able to "spend" it. Certainly not enough to die for.

Predicting the future is always hard, you just have more faith that a bunch of patriots will be able to hold their own against overwhelming odds. I just look at human nature and know there will be even family and friends turning you in for favors. In bad times it may be as small as a free meal.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.