I respectfully disagree. Windows Mobile proved that android is a failed model. Windows allowed OEMs and carriers to sell whatever they wanted and control the user experience. People need a consistent UI and common experience to really do well in the mobile market. Some carriers just suck at forcing their crap on the user and some OEMs make cheap crap for devices.
Windows Phone is trying to bring the best of both worlds. iPhones consistent look and feel appoach and common experience while allowing mulitple hardware vendors, but with a set of standards that must be met.
Windows Phone 7 gets to compete against the iPhone, but it’s just not as good. The advantage WP7 has over the iPhone, namely being available on multiple devices, is already filled by Android. My favorite thing about it over Android is a powerful minimum hardware spec, but around now most phones are at a good enough spec to run Android well anyway.
As far as that nice consistent UI, I wholly agree. But Microsoft itself has shown that people have no problem buying crap.
WP7 will have some success for sure. Microsoft won’t let it fail no matter how many dollars need to be spent in advertising and pot sweetening, or in suing the competition.
I think the 300,000 Android activiations a day, compared with the roughly 38,000 WindowsPhone “movements” per day (we can only guess how many have actually been activated, as opposed to sitting on store shelves and in warehouses - 50% maybe) blows a huge hole in your theory.
Consumers like the Android operating system (and Apple’s IOS) and will buy the quality Android phones that meet their needs and budgets, while leaving the lower quality ones on the shelves. With all the tech sites and consumer reviews out there, it doesn’t take long for the public to know which devices are worth buying. As long as I know I am buying a quality phone, why should I care if inferior models are running the same OS.
Microsoft waited far too long to launch WP7, (and it still isn’t ready for primetime without cut and paste and other basics) and did it on solid, but not cutting edge devices, (with equal or less impressive specs as Android and iPhones rolled out months earlier), and rolled it out with one of the dumbest advertising campaigns in history (Windows: The Phone you won’t really use much!)
Oh yeah, and with, at least for now, a far inferior app market. They even copied the green and white shopping bag Android Market icon, with a window replacing the little robot. How innovative!
As far as I can tell, there is nothing about WP7 that is going to make an Android or IOS user want to switch.