I think the 300,000 Android activiations a day, compared with the roughly 38,000 WindowsPhone “movements” per day (we can only guess how many have actually been activated, as opposed to sitting on store shelves and in warehouses - 50% maybe) blows a huge hole in your theory.
Consumers like the Android operating system (and Apple’s IOS) and will buy the quality Android phones that meet their needs and budgets, while leaving the lower quality ones on the shelves. With all the tech sites and consumer reviews out there, it doesn’t take long for the public to know which devices are worth buying. As long as I know I am buying a quality phone, why should I care if inferior models are running the same OS.
Microsoft waited far too long to launch WP7, (and it still isn’t ready for primetime without cut and paste and other basics) and did it on solid, but not cutting edge devices, (with equal or less impressive specs as Android and iPhones rolled out months earlier), and rolled it out with one of the dumbest advertising campaigns in history (Windows: The Phone you won’t really use much!)
Oh yeah, and with, at least for now, a far inferior app market. They even copied the green and white shopping bag Android Market icon, with a window replacing the little robot. How innovative!
As far as I can tell, there is nothing about WP7 that is going to make an Android or IOS user want to switch.
The market is way bigger than the current android and iPhone users. That's who they are really targetting. In a growing market there are plenty of players. The question is which ones are setup to last for the long haul. Being first to market doesn't mean you'll be the best or the one last standing. Microsoft does know how to move into markets that other people discover better than any other IT player.