I think Android will the “Windows” of phones & pads.
In PCs you have Apple (one hardware vendor) and Windows (multiple hardware vendors). (Yes Linux people, I know, but we’re talking about consumer devices here, not servers).
Phones will end up Apple (one hardware vendor) and Android (multiple hardware vendors).
Pads will end up Apple (one hardware vendor) and Android (multiple hardware vendors).
And there will be some cross between phones and pads, and some also-ran os’s (just like with PCs), but it Apple and Android should shake out as the big two.
I respectfully disagree. Windows Mobile proved that android is a failed model. Windows allowed OEMs and carriers to sell whatever they wanted and control the user experience. People need a consistent UI and common experience to really do well in the mobile market. Some carriers just suck at forcing their crap on the user and some OEMs make cheap crap for devices.
Windows Phone is trying to bring the best of both worlds. iPhones consistent look and feel appoach and common experience while allowing mulitple hardware vendors, but with a set of standards that must be met.
From what I recall this reflects the gartner report that was issued a couple months ago. Which predicted growing market share for android, flat for the windows phone and declining share for the iPhone through 2014.