This film does not have an art house ad budget; it’s a standard studio release adult drama campaign, with plenty of thirty second ads on the broadcast networks during primetime.
Obviously there are differences between how art house films and “Transformers” movies are rolled out. And art house film exhibitors can get a bigger slice of the smaller pie. But that doesn’t translate to the film being profitable to the studio that made it.
There is no difference between how much box office revenue it takes an “art house” movie and a “Transformers” movie to go into profit: budget plus half again. Whether it makes it back on opening weekend or during a slow roll-out, this film must gross $54 million to start to make money.
$9 million in a month — there is nothing in the numbers to indicate this film will go on to make $80 million foreign and domestic. An Oscar nomination might nudge it upwards a little, but not into profit. Not in 2010 or 2011.
Sorry but you’re wrong. It’s an arthouse movie, with arthouse advertising. See a “normal” studio release campaign is national, but since this movie isn’t out national the ad campaign isn’t. I haven’t seen ad 1 for this movie yet, because it won’t be here for months. And I probably won’t see any ads for it because by the time the arthouse movies get to Tucson sized cities they’re pretty much relying entirely on word of mouth (they love the internet) and the theater’s own advertising (they also love the internet).
And arthouse exhibitors don’t always get a bigger slice, many get a smaller slice, many are non-profit organizations heavily supported by other local businesses so they don’t need as big a slice in the first place. And of course they don’t have the constant release pressure that the bigs have. Big theaters have to put up with a movie industry that averages 4 major releases a week, they need the big score now because they have no later. Arthouses get to show what they want whenever they get around to it. Tucson’s showed The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo for 3 solid months, of course on the other side they show things like Cropsey twice.
Every way you slice it your math is 100% NOT how thing work for this kind of movie. Which is why your estimate is problematic at best.
9 million in a month for a movie that will be in circulation for 6 to 9 months is really good. See you keep using “big” release math but that’s not how things work. For a big release the first month is 90% of the revenue the movie will make in domestic theaters. For an arthouse movie the first month is 10 to 20%, they have a much much longer shelf life.
I’ll keep watching the mojo on this one. You’ll see, sometime around March, when this movie finally gets to here (not that I’ll see it but it’ll be here) it’ll probably be over 40 or 50 mil, and solidly profitable. An arthouse movie that manages to squeeze into the top 10 on under 400 theaters is making solid money.