Not to let the cat out of the bag early, but Hitler is on his way to the Pyrennees to meet Franco. The stakes in Spain are very high at this time. Having secured Vichy pledges to defend French North Africa against the British, if he can get transit for German troops to attack and occupy Gibraltar, Hitler effectively seals off the Mediterranean to the British. It will become Mussolini’s “Mare Nostrum” (”our sea”). In addition, securing Spain as an “interested party” (she would be neither ally or co-belligerent, but clearly not neutral, either) also secures shipment of tungsten from Portugal. Germany relied on Portugal for most of her tungsten, which did far more than act as filaments for light bulbs. Tungsten was an important ferro-alloy used for armor plate, and was also used as the solid core for armor-piercing ammunition.
What Hitler is really playing for here is a greatly reduced war-making capacity by Britain, and a south-western and southern flank secured by a combine of Italy, France and Spain. While each one alone is worthless, all three combined with German stiffening is probably more than sufficient to keep the British off the continent for the forseeable future. It appears the French are also trying to get their economy going again; their economic activity must be quite constrained since they are under the British blockade and don’t have access to imports from their colonies beyond North Africa or world markets in general. It would be most desirable for the Germans to give some economic guarantees to the French in exchange for Vichy forces covering the Channel coast, but both sides in that exchange must know that the other side is not capable of delivering.
Even with the limited coverage of the southern and south-western flanks by the Spanish-French-Italian combine means that means Hitler would be free to concentrate virtually 100% of his military and economic resources to the East. So when Hanson Baldwin, the Times strategic analyst, says that the seizure of Gibraltar does not give the Axis a decisive strategic advantage, I think he’s wrong. If Gibraltar falls, Malta falls. The Italians are secure in the Western and Central Mediterranean, and the British are left in the East. The Germans have access to support submarine bases on the west coast of Africa, and the British blockade of the Continent gets very leaky to the south-west. To me, that’s a strategic catastrophe for Britain.
However, the British are playing their own game for Spain with economic incentives. If the British can keep Spain truly “neutral,” British access to the Western Mediterranean continues and the Vichy possessions in North Africa remain vulnerable. Thus, the Vichy guarantee is of very limited value to Hitler unless he can get Franco on board.
Let’s see how this plays out. I just love strategy.
A decisive aspect of this as far as Spain goes will play out in a few days so I won’t give it up.
I will do a bit of foreshadowing though. I mentioned a few days ago that Mussolini had been disturbed by Hitlers moves into Rumania since he had been told by Hitler to keep the Balkans quiet. As a result he has made the decision to invade Greece in a fall campaign. Two days ago on the 23rd, Greece got wind of an impending invasion when the Greek ambassador in Rome warned his government to expect an Italian invasion today or tomorrow (25th or 26th). Since that warning went out, the Greek army has been mobilizing (I’m surprised that this detail didn’t make the Times but no matter). By now the Greek forces on the northern frontier is about the same size as the Italian forces in Albania, but there is one significant difference. The Greek artillery are better equipped and trained.
When this invasion does go off finally it will make an impression on Franco as well. That aspect I will discuss later.
Having failed to knock out the RAF, dooming Sea Lion, Hitler knew he had to start moving east for Barbarossa, his number one war aim to take out the Soviet Union.
Hence his diplomatic mission to see Franco, expecting some pay-back for his support in the Civil War. If he can get Gibralter, Italy will have a free hand in the Mideterranean, and Hitler will have a free hand to go east. England can be cordoned-off for the duration.