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"Japanese pilot training programs could never replace the losses and institutional experience of their downed aviators. The US started the Pacific war in a dismal state with Brewster Buffalos, Wildcats, and few P-38s and P-40s."

You've swerved into another question that has always baffled me: When the Japanese started the war with the United States they had a superior aircraft and more experienced pilots - at least that's the way it's always stated. But didn't the Japanese get most of their experience against enemies like the Chinese who were basically flying biplanes? Are the Japanese advantages over the U.S. over-hyped?

A few weeks after Pearl Harbor, the inexperienced Americans with the AVG, in their obsolete p-40's, operating under extremely primitive conditions, handed the Japanese their butts in Burma and China.

The Japanese did gain a lot of experience over China. The Zero design was an exercise in trade-offs. They exchanged armor and survivability for nimble maneuverability and speed. This served them well against the Chinese, and indeed the USN and USMC aircraft at the start of the war. The AVG was somewhat of an anomaly. It was a hand-picked, mercenary airforce consisting of some of the very best flyers available at the time. While the P-40 lacked some things when compared to the Zero, it also had some strengths that could be exploited in the very capable hands of the AVG.

Keep in mind that America's highest scoring air ace of all time, Richard Bong, drove a P-38 Lightning to work in the Pac theater, which lacking the maneuverability of a Zero more than matched it in speed, armament and protection (to say nothing of engine redundancy).

By the time the Corsair, Wildcat, and to a lesser extent the Thunderbolt and Mustang arrived in the Pacific in quantity, Japanese forces had been greatly attrited, and in fact, Kamikaze tactics said every bit as much about the capabilities of Japanese pilot replacement and training programs as they did about bushido.

Of course, another interesting aspect of the Pacific war is that rather than shooting down one plane at a time, the sinking of a carrier could get rid of a lot of enemy planes and even pilots in one fell swoop. If you were positioned to absorb and replace those losses (i.e. the US) you could survive them. If you weren't (i.e., Japan), your naval air campaign became an exercise in diminishing returns.