Again the short term has been what? 8 years now and with your projection, 12 years? That’s IS my whole point. What if, in 2012, Apple does a Console, after skipping the last 8 years of losses? And what if it is some damnable new thing no one else every thought of yet again and suddenly it’s Apple with 45% of the gaming market and Sony and Nitendo and Xbox dead last and STILL LOSING MONEY?
What IF?
That is the whole point of my post on this one.
THAT IS what Sony and Microsoft FEAR.
And, as I suggested, for damn good reason!
No way Apple will jump in and be profitable from day one; that just doesn’t happen. It costs money - LOTS of money - to design and build hardware, especially something as focused as a gaming console.
Apple doesn’t have anywhere near 45% of any market, save the music player market in the US. Overseas, and in all other markets (cell phones and computers) they are a small player overall. Down in the single digits, or at best low-mid teens.
It took Nintendo a decade to dethrone Atari. It took Microsoft the better part of a decade to beat Sony and nearly take the top spot from Nintendo. Apple will have that long road to take, and not just Microsoft to fight - they’ll have Sony and Nintendo to contend with, both of whom are extremely focused competitors.
Microsoft will make back their investment on Xbox in another 2 years, and they will continue to make big bucks on it long-term.