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Don't worry, soccer fever will pass
Sun Chronicle ^

Posted on 06/26/2010 8:07:11 PM PDT by Chet 99

Friday, June 25, 2010 1:11 AM EDT

As you know, we are all in the grip of World Cup fever.

It's reached such intensity that if you walk into a sports bar anywhere in the United States and mention Landon Donavan's stunning extra-time goal against Algeria that allowed the USA to finish atop group C and advance to this weekend's round of 16, literally several people will actually know what you're talking about.

And only a couple will want to beat you up.

The World Cup is, of course, that quadrennial event when the entire sporting world can join together as one and revel in the joy of pointing out how stupid the Americans are for hating soccer.

But Americans don't hate soccer. We also don't hate haggis, or warm beer, or eating snails or invading Poland or any of the other things that Europeans like to do. We just don't think about them much. (OK, to be perfectly accurate, Glenn Beck DOES hate soccer and the World Cup, accusing the rest of the world trying to "shove it down our throats." Evidently someone told him it is a game played by foreigners.)

But, you may say, America's performance in World Cup play this month has drawn decent ratings for the telecasts and certainly must be inspiring a whole new generation of fans.

To that I say, someone has been blowing a vuvuzela too close to your head. Americans will happily watch our athletes every four years in the Olympics, too. That doesn't mean that women's gymnastics or luge is going to become the Next Big Thing In Sports. (Heck, if they only have to do it every four years, Americans will even get kind of excited about watching curling.)

Soccer has been the official Next Big Thing for about the last 35 years. Professional leagues have risen and fallen, great stars of the game - who may have seen better days -have been imported and now our national team is rising through the top ranks of world competition.

And American soccer still hasn't broken the glass ceiling that, in most polls, puts it just below horseracing and just above lacrosse.

This is despite the fact that every suburban child in America is required - by law - to participate in a soccer league at some point in his or her life. This is how most of us become acquainted with soccer, watching our kids cluster around a ball - at least the ones who aren't standing at random points around the field, contemplating dandelions - their little legs flailing, until one kid does the only logical thing and picks up the ball and RUNS with it.

It makes you think, "Gee, a warm beer would taste great about now."

TOM REILLY is a Sun Chronicle news editor and former soccer dad whose daughters have moved on to more interesting - and expensive - pursuits. He can be reached at 508-236-0332 or at treilly@thesunchronicle.com. Read his blog at thesunchronicle.com/reilly.


TOPICS: Sports
KEYWORDS: kickball; redrover
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To: kabar

i just cannot get into soccer. we watched some of the game yesterday and it is like watching something in slow motion, to me. My 18 yo son plays travel ice hockey and my 16 daughter plays on her HS basketball team, both fast-moving sports. Soccer and baseball both bore me to death, sad to say.


61 posted on 06/27/2010 5:02:56 AM PDT by xsmommy
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To: xsmommy
Obvious ways to improve soccer
-allow for timeouts (this will help strategy and make for better tv viewing)

-allow for more player substitutions, probably unlimited like basketball

-allow subbed players to return back to playing

-no offsides at least within one third of the field closest to the goalie or in the box

-the clock must stop for injuries and out of bounds and other delays

-fake injuries should be red cards

-penalties need to be called less - man up you sissy boys

-no ties whatsoever

-ALWAYS USE THE SAME SIZED BALL: do you know they change the size and shape of the ball every cup? Can you imagine this happening at the world series or super bowl

Broadcast
-No British announcers: it is already too boring

-Enough with ONLY slow motion replays, again its boring enough already, I don't need to see the coach blink once over ten seconds

-Cut out the over-drama. The American announcer saw Mic Jagger in the stands and commented “Maybe he will write a song about this game.” Yeah right

-Ban the horns just like other artificial noise makers

Lastly and seriously allow the players to catch balls in the air, but make them immediately drop it. Still no running with it or throwing it, but catching. Would revolutionize the game.

62 posted on 06/27/2010 5:32:08 AM PDT by Treeless Branch
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To: kabar
Every state is a border state when it comes to immigrants.

Not correct. Latinos are very heavily concentrated in California, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, and a few large cities in other states.

Where are all the great soccer rivalries between colleges, drawing huge national audiences? They don't exist. And pro soccer is still almost unknown in most parts of the country.

Until soccer can draw large, nationwide TV audiences for many games, week-after-week, it will remain a very minor sport.

63 posted on 06/27/2010 5:32:35 AM PDT by Will88
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To: Treeless Branch

i really don’t get the horns. i had read about the vuvuzela controversy, and picked out the kind of DRONING sound in the background yesterday, just a nonstop drone. Other than just recreational blowing of the thing, what is the point? how do they even know WHEN to blow it, there doesn’t appear to be any sense of urgency in play, no critical tension-filled point. Other than celebrating a goal [which are dang few and far between] i don’t see how the horns fit into the game.


64 posted on 06/27/2010 5:39:52 AM PDT by xsmommy
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To: Chet 99
This is how most of us become acquainted with soccer, watching our kids cluster around a ball - at least the ones who aren't standing at random points around the field, contemplating dandelions...

That's exactly how I was introduced to the sport. One of my kids was a dandelion watcher and the other one chased butterflies. I basically sat in a lawn chair reading Tom Clancy novels (back when they were worth reading).

I actually couldn't tell the difference between practice and a game. On the way home, I'd ask one of my kids what the score was and I don't think they ever knew. But I could tell if they won because the coach would buy them ice cream bars.

65 posted on 06/27/2010 5:48:14 AM PDT by SamAdams76 (I am 56 days away from outliving Francis Gary Powers)
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To: xsmommy

Each to his own. I just got back from watching the Germany-England game at a local Irish pub. Great atmosphere. Great game. Lots of fun. The World Cup is like March Madness or having a month of Super Bowls.


66 posted on 06/27/2010 9:53:58 AM PDT by kabar
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To: Will88
Not correct. Latinos are very heavily concentrated in California, Texas, New Mexico and Arizona, and a few large cities in other states.

Check this out. See Table 1

You left out New York (2), Florida (3), and NJ (5), which are in the top five in the number of immigrants and the percentage of the population. New Mexico (29) is not that high either in terms of numbers or percentage of the population. Here in VA, we are number 10.

Check out table #2 to see how the immigrant population has mushroomed throughout the country. The U.S. adds one international migrant (net) every 34 seconds. Immigrants account for one in 8 U.S. residents, the highest level in more than 80 years. In 1970 it was one in 21; in 1980 it was one in 16; and in 1990 it was one in 13. In a decade, it will be one in 7, the highest it has been in our history. And by 2050, one in 5 residents of the U.S. will be foreign-born.

Where are all the great soccer rivalries between colleges, drawing huge national audiences? They don't exist. And pro soccer is still almost unknown in most parts of the country.

What are you comparing soccer against? Professional popularity is a different story. Hell, LA doesn't have a professional football team. American football is almost unkown around the world. It is a niche sport. Basketball is far more well known internationally. Kobe Bryant and Yao Ming are far more popular and well known than Drew Brees or Brett Farve. For that matter so is Landon Donovan.

Soccer is not a minor sport when you look at participation. Until the age of thirteen, more kids, male and female, participate in soccer than any other sport. Its populartity will grow as the demographics of this country rapidly change. Although the study linked below is a little dated, you can see how rapidly the change has been. For example, at the state level, Mexico was the largest sending country in 18 states in 1990; by 2000 it was the top sending country in 30 states.

Where Immigrants Live An Examination of State Residency of the Foreign Born by Country of Origin in 1990 and 2000

67 posted on 06/27/2010 10:17:15 AM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
You left out New York (2), Florida (3), and NJ (5)

I didn't leave out anything, as the states I mentioned and "large cities in other states" are where most immigrants have settled. Do NYC and Miami and Chicago really have to mentioned as known immigrant destinations?

You're making an assertion for which there is little evidence: that immigrants will make soccer popular on par with football, basketball and baseball.

It will become incrementally more popular, but today, soccer is so far behind those sports when all levels of participation and attendance and revenue are considered, that it is absurd to even make the statement you've made.

This statement from my #63 is irrefutable, and you are only dreaming of what might happen far into the future:

Until soccer can draw large, nationwide TV audiences for many games, week-after-week, it will remain a very minor sport. Soccer has scarcely made a dent in the TV market in the US, and that only at the pro level. Any big college soccer rivalries drawing big national audiences?

Here is a survey where respondents named their favorite sports and soccer hardly registers compared the major US sports:

Most Popular Sports in US

I looked for simple tables showing total revenue for various sports, and total number of spectators, but didn't find it in summary form. Everyone wants to write long-winded articles that are too time consuming for this purpose.

Soccer is not a minor sport when you look at participation.

As I and others have said in these soccer threads, most kids who play soccer do not become soccer fans when older. There have been kid soccer leagues for thirty years, because parents view it as safer, and small kids can compete better than in football or basketball. These years of kid soccer have not built a large fan base for soccer. - And, the term "soccer mom" has been around for twenty or more years. But these kids end up fans of the major sports as adults.

I'm not a soccer hater, and even watched England vs. Germany today. But there is no point in building it up to be something it is not in the USA, and is unlikely to become in the lifetime of anyone now living.

68 posted on 06/27/2010 12:00:03 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88
I didn't leave out anything, as the states I mentioned and "large cities in other states" are where most immigrants have settled. Do NYC and Miami and Chicago really have to mentioned as known immigrant destinations?

What you seem to be missing is that they are not just settling in large cities. I bet you didn't take a look at links to see how the Hispanic population has spread throughout the country. As of 2000, Mexican-born immigrants were the largest foreign born contingent in 30 of our states. Every state is becoming a border state. The numbers are huge. For example, in North Carolina in 1990, according to the census figures, there were 8,751 Mexican-born residents. In 2000 there were 179,236. And the Census estimated figures for 2008 were 636,786 Hispanics in North Carolina compared to 378,963 in 2000.

In 2000, there were 33 states (including the District of Columbia) in which immigrants from Spanish-speaking Latin American countries were the largest single group. Europeans were the largest group in 11 states, East Asian immigrants were the largest in four states and Canadian immigrants were the largest in three states. I am sure the 2010 census will show an even further growth in these numbers since about two-thirds of the 1.2 million legal immigrants who enter this country annually are from Latin America.

And by 2050 one out of three residents of this country will be Hispanic.

It will become incrementally more popular, but today, soccer is so far behind those sports when all levels of participation and attendance and revenue are considered, that it is absurd to even make the statement you've made.

What statement are you referring to?

Until soccer can draw large, nationwide TV audiences for many games, week-after-week, it will remain a very minor sport. Soccer has scarcely made a dent in the TV market in the US, and that only at the pro level. Any big college soccer rivalries drawing big national audiences?

Through the first 14 matches of the World Cup, ESPN and ABC have delivered an average crowd of 3.35 million viewers, marking a 64% increase from the same period in 2006, when the networks drew 2.9 million fans.

The initial portion of the round-robin stage was distinguished by the much-anticipated June 12 U.S.-England tie, which drew 13 million viewers on ABC, making it the most-watched first round World Cup game in U.S. broadcast history.

Spanish-language broadcaster Univision also drew a big crowd last Saturday, serving up 4.1 million viewers with its coverage of the 1-1 Yanks-Brits match. The Group C battle stands as Univision's second most-watched U.S. World Cup match ever, trailing only the U.S.-Mexico round-of-16 showdown in 2002 (4.2 million). Through its first 17 broadcasts, Univision averaged 2.24 million viewers (data for 2006 coverage were unavailable).

If the early numbers aren't enough to convince skeptics that soccer is becoming America's fifth major sport, consider this: In 2006, 99.7 million viewers turned to ESPN, ABC and Univision for their World Cup fix. All told, the nation accounted for the eighth-largest aggregate of global World Cup viewers, up from its No. 23 ranking in 1998.

The World Cup final on 11 July will vie with the 2002 World Cup final for the record of being the second most-watched live televised event in human history – behind the 2008 Olympic Games opening ceremony – according to Kevin Alavy, a leading authority on global TV viewing patterns in sport.

As I and others have said in these soccer threads, most kids who play soccer do not become soccer fans when older. There have been kid soccer leagues for thirty years, because parents view it as safer, and small kids can compete better than in football or basketball. These years of kid soccer have not built a large fan base for soccer. - And, the term "soccer mom" has been around for twenty or more years. But these kids end up fans of the major sports as adults

On what basis do you make that judgment? There has been an amazing growth in the sport since the US qualified in 1990 for the World Cup, the first time in 40 years. The foundation is being laid at the youth, under 17 and under 20 level along with the national team. There is no doubt that the 2010 World Cup will set viewership records with perhaps a 60% increase in the 99 million aggregate in 2006. ESPN, ABC, Univision are televising all of the games. From personal observations, the DC Metro area has become far more interested and involved in the Cup this year. Bars are opening at 7:30 to accommodate the fans. I have been attending the games at various pubs and they are crowded, noisy, and raucus. World Cup fever has hit the town like never before.

I'm not a soccer hater, and even watched England vs. Germany today. But there is no point in building it up to be something it is not in the USA, and is unlikely to become in the lifetime of anyone now living.

I watched the game today at an Irish pub. The place was packed even though the US had been eliminated. I can only smile at your prediction. I am old enough to remember how pro football was still a "minor sport." I watched the famous 1958 Colts-Giants game on TV as a 15 year old. The NBA was still a "minor sport." Baseball was king.

Things can change quickly especially if they are fueled by major demographic changes. By 2050, one in three residents of this country will be Hispanic and one in five foreign-born. There are cultural ramifications to these demographic changes.

Here are some attendance figures (total numbers and average per game) for the top domestic leagues internationally. It puts everything into some perspective. It doesn't include TV and web coverage, just actual attendance. Very interesting.

69 posted on 06/27/2010 2:28:21 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
You provide nothing in the way of evidence to support your claim. And, wow, a World Cup of audience of more than 3+ million. No need to even compare that to audiences of major sporting events, or even region college football.

You hope soccer becomes a major sport, but those hopes have been around at least thirty years, and the MLS is not the first American pro soccer league. And I'm old enough to remember the first great hullabaloo about about the rapidly growing popularity of soccer in the US. And, in 1975, the great Pele's signing with the New York Cosmos was going to be the great boost that would make soccer a major sport in America.

I figured wrong, those hopes have been around for at least 35 years. And people are still hoping. But until the TV audiences for World Cup get at least into the tens of millions in the US, and there is a thriving pro-league and strong college rivalries, soccer will remain a minor sport.

And there are no statistics to prove otherwise. The proof is the attendance at games, and in the TV audiences. A long way to go.

70 posted on 06/27/2010 2:59:33 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88
The initial portion of the round-robin stage was distinguished by the much-anticipated June 12 U.S.-England tie, which drew 13 million viewers on ABC, making it the most-watched first round World Cup game in U.S. broadcast history. This is more than any of the first 6 NBA finals playoff games.

You hope soccer becomes a major sport, but those hopes have been around at least thirty years, and the MLS is not the first American pro soccer league. And I'm old enough to remember the first great hullabaloo about about the rapidly growing popularity of soccer in the US. And, in 1975, the great Pele's signing with the New York Cosmos was going to be the great boost that would make soccer a major sport in America.

Here is an interesting article on the decline of baseball. It contained the following interesting comment on the impact of the growing Hispanic demographic:"

"Furthermore, yet others blame the alleged decline of baseball popularity on the change of the fan base, and the lack of subsequent adjustments by MLB to counter these changes. While the total proportion of baseball fans in the US population remains steady, the composition of the fan base has changed. It’s quite possible that the perception of Baseball as the predominant American sport has changed because the citizen and spectator makeup in America has changed. Gallup data from the early 1950s found that 52% of black adults followed Major League Baseball. By the early 2000s, just 33% of blacks said they were baseball fans. Nowadays, the majority of blacks identify themselves as basketball fans (Isley, 2006)."

The survey however did point out that the loss of black baseball fans was most likely offset by Hispanic/Latino immigration and subsequent new fans. With that said, Hispanic/Latino’s are now the country’s largest minority, and the Pew Hispanic Center projects that the Hispanic population will reach 60.4 million by 2020. Most of that increase will come from US-born second-generation Latinos and MLB should be positioned to take advantage of the Hispanic baby boom with 12 MLB teams among the top ten Hispanic markets. The NFL is absent from the largest Latino market, Los Angeles (4.4 million Hispanics). Furthermore, a December 2005 poll by The Latino Coalition surveyed 1,000 Hispanic adults and found that baseball ranks as the second favorite sport with 13% of the vote, comparable to the general population. Soccer is the favorite Hispanic sport (Isley, 2006). It is quite possible that the game of baseball is poised for a push in popularity but in my opinion the game will not be able to capitalize on this increased potential fan base if it does not address some of the underlying issues that are undoubtedly currently hindering the games popularity.

And there are no statistics to prove otherwise. The proof is the attendance at games, and in the TV audiences. A long way to go.

Fueled by rapid growth in soccer-crazed cities such as Toronto, Seattle and Philadelphia, Major League Soccer has now moved past the NBA and NHL in terms of average attendance, based on figures from each sport's most recent full season.

71 posted on 06/27/2010 3:27:16 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar
Through the first 14 matches of the World Cup, ESPN and ABC have delivered an average crowd of 3.35 million viewers, marking a 64% increase from the same period in 2006, when the networks drew 2.9 million fans.

And, an increase from 2.9 million to 3.35 million is an increase of 15.5%, probably not much more than the increase of the US population over that ten year period. If those are the correct viewership figures, there was little or no increase in soccer interest, just an increase in population which added incrementally to the total number of soccer viewers.

72 posted on 06/27/2010 3:35:27 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

If people like soccer let them watch (or play) soccer. If not, not. Get a life guys.


73 posted on 06/27/2010 3:39:56 PM PDT by Lucius Cornelius Sulla (Good night. I expect more respect tomorrow - Danny H (RIP))
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To: kabar
Fueled by rapid growth in soccer-crazed cities such as Toronto, Seattle and Philadelphia, Major League Soccer has now moved past the NBA and NHL in terms of average attendance, based on figures from each sport's most recent full season.

I read that absurd article. They are comparing average attendance of basketball and hockey (played indoors in arenas of 20,000 and less), to soccer (played outdoors in facilities that seat 40,000 and upward. So, soccer in playing in more than half empty stadiums, and is being compared to sports that play three games per week over a shorter season than the soccer season.

And both the NBA and NHL play 82 game seasons, and the champs play around 100 through the playoffs. They just don't compare because the NBA and NHL have many sellouts, three times a week, and soccer is playing to more than half empty stadiums. In total attendance and revenue, soccer is far behind in the US.

The initial portion of the round-robin stage was distinguished by the much-anticipated June 12 U.S.-England tie, which drew 13 million viewers on ABC, making it the most-watched first round World Cup game in U.S. broadcast history. This is more than any of the first 6 NBA finals playoff games.

And game seven of the NBA finals drew 28 million viewers. And you're comparing apples and cola nuts. Your proper comparison is the NBA finals and the deciding game of the MLS championship in the US. If you want to compare US games in the World Cup to something, compare them to the Olympics. The US women's World Cup championship game in LA years back drew a big audience, but I haven't noticed women's soccer becoming as big as the major US sports.

As has been well pointed out, this once every four years American interest in soccer tells us nothing about the real American interest in soccer. I watch soccer once every four years, and this WC is the first time I've watched soccer since WC 2006. And there are many more like me. Compare the US World Cup viewing audience to the US Olympic viewing audience, not to the NBA. This is rooting for the national team, not expressing a big interest in soccer (or all those Olympic sports).

You are just hoping for the future, and there is nothing wrong with that. But all this data you post proves nothing. You're still in the prediction stage. People had all sorts of reasons in 1975 why soccer was about to really take off in the US. It didn't.

Until you can show soccer attendance and revenue figures for US only competition, year-after-year, on par with the major sports, and major college interest, then it's still just US soccer fans hoping for bigger and better things, just as back in 1975.

No one is changing their mind, and we've already spent too much time on this.

74 posted on 06/27/2010 4:14:07 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88
Through Friday June 18 and 23 games on ABC and ESPN, the 2010 World Cup averaged a 1.9 national rating for the two-hour match windows, 60% amelioration from the 1.2 at the same stage of the 2006 tournament. Household impressions surged 66% to 2.33 million from 1.34 million, with viewership ahead 71% to 2.95 million from 1.72 million.

Nationally, matches on ABC, ESPN and ESPN2 are averaging a 2.1 rating and 3.3 million viewers -- ahead 52 and 64 percent over the 2006 tournament at this point. ESPN executive John Skipper has two theories for the ratings jump: ``The diversification of our country'' and the fact children who grew up playing soccer are now older and have interest in the sport.

The soccer revolution is being televised. Saturday's World Cup match between the U.S. and England drew massive viewership numbers that beat the first four games of the NBA Finals. The hotly anticipated match, which saw the U.S. achieve an unlikely draw against the European giants, attracted 13 million viewers on ABC and 4.1 million on Univision for a total of 17.1 million. The battle for NBA supremacy between the Boston Celtics and the Los Angeles Lakers -- which is posting its highest number in six years -- drew 14.1 million, 15.7 million, 16 million and 16.4 million viewers respectively through the first four games.

75 posted on 06/27/2010 4:24:42 PM PDT by kabar
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla
If people like soccer let them watch (or play) soccer. If not, not. Get a life guy

Lol, who's prevented anyone from watching soccer??? I watched it. Maybe know what you're commenting on next time!

76 posted on 06/27/2010 4:34:00 PM PDT by Will88
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To: kabar

Here’s a fairly interesting set of tables I came across which shows average and total attendance for major sports leagues in the world for 2008. The MLS is not on the list, but has probably increased attendance since then:

http://wapedia.mobi/en/List_of_sports_attendance_figures#1.


77 posted on 06/27/2010 4:58:23 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Will88

My post #69 provided the same tables.


78 posted on 06/27/2010 5:51:50 PM PDT by kabar
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To: kabar

With America, England and Mexico out (basically everybody anybody in America would care about) expect ratings to tank for the rest of the cup.

And, of course, MLS ratings score under half a million. You can’t be a major sport in America on a quad-annual event, you need an annual league in America that’s successful. And soccer doesn’t have one.


79 posted on 06/27/2010 5:55:13 PM PDT by discostu (like a dog being shown a card trick)
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To: discostu
LOL. You are still at it. Let's wait for the final ratings to come in, including the cup final. I wager that they will show a major increase.

2010 MLS Attendance

80 posted on 06/27/2010 6:10:34 PM PDT by kabar
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