Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Gold could fall 40 percent from peak: Prechter
Reuters ^ | June 8, 2010 | Reuters

Posted on 06/08/2010 6:17:06 AM PDT by danielmryan

The price of gold could drop 40 percent from its all-time high because of bearish technical momentum and deflation amid a European debt crisis, said Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter on Monday.

Prechter said at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York that recent readings of gold market psychology showed a 98 percent bullishness in the metal, the highest ever recorded for any physical commodity.

He said, however, that technical momentum was stalling for gold as the rate of increase had peaked in 2006, and that each subsequent rally since then has risen at a slower rate.

"That is not a guarantee of change but a sign that one is likely."

(Excerpt) Read more at reuters.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: crash; deflation; gold; prechter
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-43 next last
Prechter's been a gold bear for a long time. So far, he's been wrong this time too.
1 posted on 06/08/2010 6:17:06 AM PDT by danielmryan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

Every time I see a hit piece like this Gold goes up.


2 posted on 06/08/2010 6:19:44 AM PDT by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

No matter how many bubbles the market creates, there are always plenty of people thinking this one is different. It never is. Hard to time it, but you know it’s going to pop sooner or later. Seems to me it’ll hover up there in the clouds until the recovery starts for real, whenever that is. Then, people will be holding a lot of overpriced gold, unless they are smart and sell before it falls.


3 posted on 06/08/2010 6:20:00 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

“In terms of timing, the time to get excited about gold was back in 2001 when no one wanted it, and now everyone seems to want it, so I don’t.”

The money quote.


4 posted on 06/08/2010 6:20:58 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: mountainlion

I guess gold picked a good day to break $1250!


5 posted on 06/08/2010 6:21:46 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Anything worth doing, is worth doing badly at first.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Huck

That assumes improvement, there is a strong possibility things can grow much worse as those Debt positions have not been unwound, either private or public.


6 posted on 06/08/2010 6:22:15 AM PDT by padre35 (You shall not ignore the laws of God, the Market, the Jungle, and Reciprocity Rm10.10)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: mountainlion

I’ve learned my lesson. I just hope I live long enough to execute it. The time to buy gold is during an equities boom. The time to sell is during times like right now. So, next time the market is humming and everyone is happy, I’ll buy gold. Then, when the next crisis hits, I’ll sell. Just need to live another 30 years or so to get through the cycle one more time.


7 posted on 06/08/2010 6:22:25 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: padre35

Yeah, things can definitely get worse. Still a lot of unwinding to do, and no place to hide. Even so, gold prices are so high at this point, it seems pretty risky to buy any now, with more downside risk than upside. I’m sure the smart players bought all their gold during the boom times, at $400/oz. If people are buying all this gold, someone is selling, right? Sellers-smart. Buyers-not so smart.


8 posted on 06/08/2010 6:24:32 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Beelzebubba
There is too much money out there that people do not want to put in the stock market. Gold is historically more stable than stock.
9 posted on 06/08/2010 6:24:49 AM PDT by mountainlion (concerned conservative.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

Realistically, gold isn’t going to drop to $750. Not that my demand will affect the market, but World governments will be devouring every bar on the market before it reaches anything near $1000 (remember the big ChiCom buy at $1045?)

Any drop below $100 is unlikely, and would be brief and minimal. Mainly because the fundamental reason for owning gold by anyone have not changed (securing assets against the ravages of inflation due to debasement of currencies in response to irresponsible government spending.)


10 posted on 06/08/2010 6:26:05 AM PDT by Atlas Sneezed (Anything worth doing, is worth doing badly at first.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

I don’t often agree with Mr. Pretcher, but the gold trade is getting mighty crowded(everybody wants to own it). Typically, this much bullishness on anything is a good sign that the price will soften, at some point.

If you’re going to buy a gold stock, or gold ETF, be careful to use it as a hedge only. Meaning not more than 5% of your portfolio.

Good luck, and “let’s be careful out there”.


11 posted on 06/08/2010 6:29:27 AM PDT by RexBeach
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

I hope he’s right so I can buy some more at the lower price.


12 posted on 06/08/2010 6:32:31 AM PDT by Jack Wilson
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: RexBeach

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.


13 posted on 06/08/2010 6:34:20 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan

That’s right, Bob. Fundamentals don’t count, only waves count.

Prechter got a lot of people fooled in the ‘80’s and it looks like he’s still at it.


14 posted on 06/08/2010 6:36:19 AM PDT by Scanian
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Huck

I got in about 18 months ago when it was high 900’s. I’m very happy!!!


15 posted on 06/08/2010 6:36:44 AM PDT by Free America52 (The White guys are getting pissed off. We beat Hitler Hirohito and Krushchev. Obama will be easy.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: Jack Wilson
Sooner or later, things will turn around. Once the economy is humming again, no matter how many years that takes, that'll be the time to buy gold. What use is gold unless at some point you sell it? You wanna buy now expecting to sell at a profit? Good luck with that. Who's selling now? Smart people who bought back during the boom times.

Yeah, gold is a hedge. But the idea is to buy low, before the risk that you are hedging against emerges. Gold buying now, seems to me, is based on fear. But that to me seems like it's too late to buy, unless it's purely speculation. The time to hedge against inflation, I think, is when there is no risk of inflation, because that's when you get your inflation hedges on the cheap. Now, you're buying them at a premium. The sellers are the ones successfully hedging. They bought at $400 and are selling at $1200.

16 posted on 06/08/2010 6:37:35 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: Free America52
I got in about 18 months ago when it was high 900’s. I’m very happy!!!

So when do you plan on selling?

17 posted on 06/08/2010 6:38:03 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Huck

“I’m sure the smart players bought all their gold during the boom times, at $400/oz. If people are buying all this gold, someone is selling, right? Sellers-smart. Buyers-not so smart.”

Believe it or not there are gold bugs predicting gold at $5K and ounce. If this comes true things will have to be pretty bad worldwide (like a world war or something).


18 posted on 06/08/2010 6:39:48 AM PDT by equalitybeforethelaw
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: danielmryan
How's an ounce of gold doing versus a high end Brooks Brothers suit? Looks like it's loosing ground...

http://www.brooksbrothers.com/IWCatProductPage.process?Merchant_Id=1&Section_Id=576&Product_Id=1450199&Parent_Id=216&default_color=GREY&sort_by=&sectioncolor=&sectionsize=

19 posted on 06/08/2010 6:43:51 AM PDT by Dixie Yooper (Ephesians 6:11)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: equalitybeforethelaw
Believe it or not there are gold bugs predicting gold at $5K and ounce. If this comes true things will have to be pretty bad worldwide (like a world war or something).

That's fine. Hell, for all I know, it could hit 5000. But to me, at this point, that represents a speculative play, not a conservative hedge. If someone has 1200 an oz to gamble with, more power to em. But that's gambling.

If you bought back in the salad days when it was $400/oz, that wasn't gambling. That was a hedge. It seems to me that a 300% return is a pretty good hedge against inflation. And at 400/oz, a pretty safe investment. At 1200? Not so safe. Again, if someone is buying, someone is selling.

20 posted on 06/08/2010 6:45:15 AM PDT by Huck (Q: How can you tell a party is in the majority? A: They're complaining about the fillibuster.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 18 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-43 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson