Vostok Sets Cold Record, Volcanic Ash Cuts AGW Advocates a Break

Daily Tech ^ | April 23, 2010 3:00 PM | Michael Andrews

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

The southernmost continent is cooling

Vostok is infamous for its controversial ice cores that some say are evidence that the world is warming.
Vostok set a record for the coldest April in history by over 20 degrees Fahrenheit. (Source: NOAA)

The Vostok Station rests at the so-called "Pole of Cold" in the heart of Antarctica.  International climatology researchers have used the station as a drilling point.  The ice cores they've extracted have become the subject of substantial controversy. 

Some scientists say that they provide evidence of global warming, while the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research has expressed concern that they were contaminated.

Vostok was able to provide researchers with one metric this month that there is little room to debate -- Vostok has suffered through the coldest April temperature in its recorded history.

Temperatures in Vostok on Thursday hit -106 degrees Fahrenheit and have not been updated, as the station is currently not responding.  Typical temperatures for April are a balmier -85 degrees Fahrenheit.

Amid the cold wave at the birthplace of warming claims, a major geological event is promising to add a wrinkle to the climate debate, handing AGW advocates another opportunity to develop new theories to explain away cooling.  The volcanic eruption from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland may worsen, according to Risk Management Solutions in Newark Calif.

RMS says that Eyjafjallajökull eruptions may worsen and additionally another Icelandic volcano named Katla is now "probable" to erupt.  Further eruptions would not only disrupt air travel, but the climate.  RMS predicts that the Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) may reach more than 4; more than the infamous Mount Saint Helens eruption.

The two largest eruptions of the twentieth century measured 6 VEI -- the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines and the 1912 Novarupta eruption in Alaska. 

VEI is a logarithmic scale, thus even if the eruption reaches 4 VEI, as predicted, that's still a mere one-hundredth of the ash that was ejected by Pinatubo or Novarupta. 

Current theory says that such an eruption would not have a major impact on the global climate.

AGW theorists, however, have a propensity for coming up with novel explanations to try to preserve warming theory in the face of cooling trends.  Attempts have been made to explain away Antarctica's cooling.  One approach is to say it is actually warming, using questionably estimated data (extrapolated based on current satellite data and past weather station measurements).  A second attempt is to admit that the southern-most continent is cooling, but that the cooling is due to the ozone layer depletion.

The increased volcanic activity in Iceland should be ideal for AGW advocates as it gives them yet another opportunity to "make the model fit the data".  Expect possible claims in the near future that volcanic ash's cooling contribution has been understated in past models.

[Marine_Uncle]

Not a place to be wondering around in a bathing suit that is for sure. To keep things in perspective. We should remind ourselves, mercury goes into it’s solid state form at -87 below zero F.

[PapaBear3625]

How does it cut them a break?

It allows them to blame the lack of warming on volcanic ash rather than on their theories being bogus.

[colorado tanker]

From Wiki:

Acclimatization to such conditions can take from a week to two months and is accompanied by headaches, eye twitches, ear pains, nose bleeds, perceived suffocation, sudden rises in blood pressure, loss of sleep, reduced appetite, vomiting, joint and muscle pain, arthritis, and weight loss of 3-5 kg (7-11 lb) (sometimes as high as 12 kg (26 lb)).

I've heard McMurdo can be a fun place, especially considering the party scene. But I think Vostok is close to the bottom of my list of places to see.

[Robert A Cook PE]

Yes, that article (paper outlining a mathematical prediction for near-term climate oscilations based on a 60+ year short term cycle) is long, but a good start.

As I wrote in the comments sections at www.WattsUpWithThat.com discussing the idea, there are several ways the author needs to improve his function:

Apply the short-term 60 year cycle on top of a longer-term 800 year cycle, rather than adding it to a simple linearly increasing baseline.

Examine the Roman Warming Period, Dark Age Cold Period, Medieval Warming Period, and Little Ice Age IN ADDITION TO today’s Modern Warming Period, rather than in isolation.

Use this mathematical model as a basis to start a more fundamental physical model, not as a replacement for a physical model.

On the other hand, using a simple mathematically-derived function to prove wrong the badly-flawed CO2-AGW theory is correct in all regards.

Proving Theory A false with real-world data does NOT require that Theory B, Theory C, or even Theory D be proven correct.

[SunkenCiv]

Must have been all the planes NOT flying didn't offset the volcano... heads they win, tails we lose. ;') Thanks Ernest.

• Ash cloud that never was: Volcanic plume over UK only a twentieth of safe-flying limit