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Here is why reconciliation won't work
Human Events ^ | 03/02/2010 | vanity

Posted on 03/02/2010 7:42:02 PM PST by GilGil

"Making the reconciliation process even more unwieldy and exhaustive is the rule that senators may offer an unlimited number of amendments which could work to the GOP’s advantage, legislative strategists said."

(Excerpt) Read more at humanevents.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: 111th; democrats; healthcare; obamacare; reconciliation; senate
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To: GilGil

All they need is 51 votes in the Senate and 51 percent in the House. Procedure wise, the GOP back in 2003/5 were ready to use the Nuclear Option but McCain’s Mutiny stopped them. So, it can be done.

Will the Blue Dogs bite the hand that feeds them?


21 posted on 03/03/2010 12:03:30 AM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: OldDeckHand

I am thinking Pelosi sees this as her ticket to be on the ticket, your opinion?


22 posted on 03/03/2010 12:04:32 AM PST by TomasUSMC ( FIGHT LIKE WW2, FINISH LIKE WW2. FIGHT LIKE NAM, FINISH LIKE NAM)
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To: OldDeckHand
I know we've had this conversation before, but it's not sinking in. The House would pass the Senate bill once the Reconciliation bill is passed first. Once that reconciliation bill is passed, the House leftists won't have any problems passing the original Senate legislation because it won't be the controlling law - the Reconciliation Bill will be. If they can get the Reconciliation Bill passed, everything else becomes moot, as a practical matter.

No, the House has to pass the Senate version FIRST, and then fix any problems that the House had with the Bill with Reconciliation.

And the reason the Senate version can't get passed in the House is the abortion funding issue-which Reconciliation will not address.

23 posted on 03/03/2010 6:04:59 AM PST by fortheDeclaration ("Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people".-John Adams)
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To: OldDeckHand
["Yes, but the House has to pass the Bill FIRST."]

No, they can actually pass them in which ever order they like, so long as Obama signs the original legislation first. In other words, they can work out all the problems - in theory - and then have the House pass the original Senate bill. Then, both the Original Senate bill, and the Reconciliation Bill would be sent to Obama for his signature. It's kind of a dirty legislative trick.

No, the Senate version has to be passed first and that is why the House is scheduling a vote on it.

If there are any changes made in the Senate Bill before the House votes on it, it would have to go back to the Senate and be redone.

The Reconciliation Bill would only be a promise to fix concerns House Democrats had with the Bill.

The Democrats plan to pass the Senate version in the House with the promise that it will be fixed in Reconciliation.

24 posted on 03/03/2010 6:08:29 AM PST by fortheDeclaration ("Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people".-John Adams)
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To: OldDeckHand

Sen. Kent Conrad, who is Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee (which is responsible for reconciliation if they go that route) said the following:

“…reconciliation cannot be used to pass comprehensive health care reform.


25 posted on 03/03/2010 6:11:43 AM PST by fortheDeclaration ("Our constitution was made only for a moral and religious people".-John Adams)
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To: TomasUSMC

All i can say is that you guys posting are the democrats’ best friend. You all know as the top experts why nothing is going to stop reconciliation, but none of your expertise can suggest how to succeed.

Who needs you!


26 posted on 03/03/2010 6:15:57 AM PST by GilGil
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To: OldDeckHand
Once that is gone (or raised to such a level it won't affect unions), the price of the original Senate bill is going to skyrocket, especially in the last ten years of the projection - which for the Byrd Rules for Reconciliation, are the most important 10 years.

Very true, but Obama doesn't care. Suppose the parliamentarian rules that the cadillac change busts the budget, but Biden overrules. Can a VP be impeached for such an act, which seems illegal?

27 posted on 03/03/2010 6:26:14 AM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Pat Caddell: Democrats are drinking kool-aid in a political Jonestown)
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To: fortheDeclaration
"No, the House has to pass the Senate version FIRST, and then fix any problems that the House had with the Bill with Reconciliation. "

No, they don't. So long as the President signs the original bill first, theirs no conditions about what legislation has to be passed first. They'll pass Reconciliation in both Houses of Congress and hold it from the President (they can hold a bill for a year before it expires), then they'll pass the original Senate bill in the House.

28 posted on 03/03/2010 7:42:37 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: caww
"So which one is the reconciliation bill? I’m sorry but I don’t think I’m getting this right. But I want to."

There are two pieces of legislation - the Original Senate Bill, which must be passed without alteration in the House. And, the Reconciliation Bill that will contain any number of provisions that modify the original Senate bill. This Reconciliation Bill does not have to be passed first, just signed first. So, in theory and if they have the votes anymore, both Houses of Congress will pass the Reconciliation Bill, then the House will pass the original Senate bill, and then both pieces of legislation would then be sent to the President for his signature. This is fine, so long as he signs the original Senate bill before he signs the Reconciliation Bill.

29 posted on 03/03/2010 7:47:04 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: fortheDeclaration
"“…reconciliation cannot be used to pass comprehensive health care reform."

He did. Then, the very next day he completely walked back that statement....

Kent Conrad Rips Media: Yes, We Can Do Reform Via Reconciliation

30 posted on 03/03/2010 7:50:01 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: TomasUSMC
"I am thinking Pelosi sees this as her ticket to be on the ticket, your opinion?"

To replace Biden, you mean? Obama is stupid, he's not that stupid. I don't think.

31 posted on 03/03/2010 7:53:23 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
"Very true, but Obama doesn't care. Suppose the parliamentarian rules that the Cadillac change busts the budget, but Biden overrules. Can a VP be impeached for such an act, which seems illegal? "

I read an interview with the parliamentarian that Trent Lott fired back in 2001. He said, essentially, that we're in uncharted waters. The reporter was trying to get him to answer a bunch of hypotheticals, but he said it's really impossible to predict with any certainty what will happen because this Obamacare is so far removed from what the intended purposes of Reconciliation were.

I've noticed that his words have been cherry-picked by both the left and the right, each saying that this guy supports their position. He really doesn't

With respect to Biden's impeachment, it's an interesting question. The Reconciliation process is codified in law as is the so-called Byrd Rule (2 U.S.C. § 644). Having said that, the law refers to Congressional rules, which can be changed at anytime, so it becomes confusing. Furthermore, you'd actually have to find enough votes to impeach in the House, and that unlikely even if the GOP takes back the House in the fall.

32 posted on 03/03/2010 7:59:25 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: OldDeckHand

Thanks.

Here is another question.

The senate Obamacare bill has not yet passed the house, and therefore could theoretically go though the bicameral conference committee.

Question: So if a reconciliation bill went to the senate and Rs objected, how could the parliamentarian rule on changes to a law which could still change in conference?

So I would argue that ramming reconciliation through the senate first is completely irrational, but what do I know?


33 posted on 03/03/2010 8:06:58 AM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Pat Caddell: Democrats are drinking kool-aid in a political Jonestown)
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To: ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas
"So I would argue that ramming reconciliation through the senate first is completely irrational, but what do I know?"

Make no mistake, I never said it was rational. In fact, I think that it clearly violates the spirit of the Reconciliation process, but given loopholes in the language, it's probably allowable.

34 posted on 03/03/2010 8:12:43 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: OldDeckHand
With respect to Biden's impeachment, it's an interesting question. The Reconciliation process is codified in law as is the so-called Byrd Rule (2 U.S.C. § 644). Having said that, the law refers to Congressional rules, which can be changed at anytime, so it becomes confusing. Furthermore, you'd actually have to find enough votes to impeach in the House, and that unlikely even if the GOP takes back the House in the fall.

Yeah, I guess it's not really illegal, but shamelessly overruling the parliamentarian seems to me far more despicable than the Lewinsky affair.

35 posted on 03/03/2010 8:15:37 AM PST by ding_dong_daddy_from_dumas (Pat Caddell: Democrats are drinking kool-aid in a political Jonestown)
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To: OldDeckHand
Here's how James Capretta at NRO explains it:

"...the bill the House would have to approve first would still include all of the egregious deals struck with individual Senators to buy their votes for passage in December. The special Medicaid arrangement for Nebraska. The exemption of Florida seniors from the Medicare Advantage cuts. The $300 million for Louisiana. Those, and many others, are all in the Senate-passed bill that Speaker Pelosi will be trying to sell in coming days.

Of course, the Speaker will tell these members, don’t worry, the reconciliation bill will fix all these problems. But will it?

If anything, what the president is now pushing, and will presumably push again tomorrow, would make the Senate bill even more expensive, by upping the premium subsidies, closing the Medicare “donut hole,” and giving all states the same deal as Nebraska. These added costs would be paid for with an entirely new Medicare payroll tax, applied toinvestment earnings. In other words, just days after voting for a highly controversial, trillion-dollar health-care bill, House Democrats would be asked to vote for a reconciliation bill that taxes and spends even more. And then that measure would go to the Senate, where there are never any guarantees that something will emerge unscathed."

IOW, nothing in the Senate bill can be changed by the House -- it's an up or down vote on the Senate bill, and they'll have to pray that the Senate makes acceptable changes through a hinky reconciliation process. It's already been decided that Stupak's abortion amendment can't be added through reconciliation, so instead the Dems simply say that the Senate bill doesn't fund abortions, and the media will pass along the lie.

36 posted on 03/03/2010 8:41:47 AM PST by browardchad ("Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own fact." - Daniel P Moynihan)
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To: browardchad
"IOW, nothing in the Senate bill can be changed by the House -- it's an up or down vote on the Senate bill, and they'll have to pray that the Senate makes acceptable changes through a hinky reconciliation process."

That's absolutely right, the House can't change a single comma in the original Senate bill. But, there's a school of thought that says - despite what NRO explains - the House has to pass the original Senate bill first. There's the possibility that the House and the Senate could pass the Reconciliation bill, then the House passes the original Senate bill. From Roll Call, just yesterday...

"“We could pass the reconciliation first, have the reconciliation passed by the Senate and then pass the Senate bill,” Hoyer said. From there, he said, the president would have to sign the Senate bill first and then the reconciliation package."

My personal opinion is if they go off the cliff, this is the cliff that they'll choose.

37 posted on 03/03/2010 9:28:22 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: OldDeckHand
There's the possibility that the House and the Senate could pass the Reconciliation bill, then the House passes the original Senate bill. From Roll Call, just yesterday...

And someone on Slate was reporting that the House would have to pass the Senate bill, then pass Obama's "reconciliation" fiasco, then it goes to the Senate, or something. (I stopped reading when the author called the Catholic Bishops "liars" for saying the Senate bills allows abortions.)

The fact that there's so many opinions on how this trainwreck will happen is a sure sign of just how out-of-control the radical left, in the WH and on Capitol Hill, is.

38 posted on 03/03/2010 11:33:37 AM PST by browardchad ("Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own fact." - Daniel P Moynihan)
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To: browardchad
"The fact that there's so many opinions on how this trainwreck will happen is a sure sign of just how out-of-control the radical left, in the WH and on Capitol Hill, is."

Opinions are plentiful, to be sure. It's tough to distinguish what's legitimate opinion, and who's "push-polling". I found an interesting, and upsetting clip on MSNBC that seems like it from the last several days. It's an interview with the former Senate Parliamentarian, a guy named Robert Dove, who was fired by Trent Lott about 10 years ago, and replaced with his assistant, the current Senate Parliamentarian.

Until this interview, I was under the impression - and I had spent considerable time reading the rules - that Biden, as President of the Senate could move to overrule the Parliamentarian. But, dove points out - and I suppose he'd know for sure - that Biden can overrule him unilaterally. And, if the GOP wants to overrule Biden, it then takes 60 votes.

This is bad. Essentially, whatever the Parliamentarian strips out, Biden can put back in with a simple ruling. Up until a week ago, I really thought Obamacare was dead. Now, I'm not so sure.

39 posted on 03/03/2010 11:47:47 AM PST by OldDeckHand
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To: OldDeckHand
But, dove points out - and I suppose he'd know for sure - that Biden can overrule him unilaterally.

I've read that elsewhere. Most pundits are saying the Senate reconciliation is a done deal. It's the House vote on the Senate bill ("up or down" as Obama said), that's the key.

40 posted on 03/03/2010 12:09:02 PM PST by browardchad ("Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own fact." - Daniel P Moynihan)
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