“Finland will become the #3 seed on the strength of the goal-differential tiebreaker.”
First tiebreaker is seed. Russia is the 1 seed out of their division, and are guaranteed number 3. Unless the Finns completely blow out Sweden, USA has clinched the 1 seed, and a bye through to the Quarterfinals.
You’re right on Russia being guaranteed the #3 seed. The restatement of the rules I read omitted the fact that group standing comes before everything, even points.
I’ve read the official rules now, though, and I still think what I said about the effect of the Sweden-Finland game on USA’s seed is right. The winner will be 1st in their group, which is the same as the USA. If the game is decided in regulation time, then the winner will also have the same number of points (9) as the USA. If the game goes into overtime, then the winner will only have 8 points and the USA will have the #1 seed.
From here, Finland has already clinched the next tiebreaker, goal differential, against USA, so if they win in regulation (blowout or not), they’re #1 and USA is #2. Sweden, on the other hand, will have to win in regulation by 6 to take the #1 seed, or by 5 to go to the next tiebreaker, goals scored. If they win by 5, Sweden will have to have scored 9 goals in the game to take the #1 seed, or 8 to go to the next tiebreaker, IIHF rankings. I’m pretty sure Sweden has this last one over the USA, though I haven’t checked.
So the USA needs the game to go into overtime or for the Swedes to beat, but not blow out, the Finns, to keep the #1 seed.