Whereas the Iranians have promised/threatened something big on the 11th, and
Whereas polar orbit satellites pass over the CONUS repeatedly, and
Whereas satellite orbits can be willfully decayed to reach a given altitude at a given Long/Lat., and
Whereas the US has no defense against or ability to recover from an EMP attack from near space, and
Whereas the TOTUS is a FNG/REMF when it comes to serious national security;
Do the Iranians or their proxies have a satellite in low-earth/ polar orbit at the present time?
NET: do we face a credible threat (perhaps not likely) of a near-space detonation of an Iranian-sponsored nuclear device
I think the possibility is very remote, but it’s extremely unsettling that we do not have much of a defense.
Unfortunately, you raise a very good point, for now and the future.
Lets hope we’re not the only ones exploring this possibility.
It would need to be at least a 1 megaton device, exploded at an optimum altitude to do the trick, IIRC. Although test have been done with smaller ones.
Ummm, we would see the launch. You don’t put up anything that high into orbit without the world knowing about it.
Besides, you are giving far too much credit to the Muslims; they have very little desire for technology, for the only book worth studying is the Koran. Educators are not held in high esteem. They purchase technology, they do not develop their own.
That said, while they might ‘buy’ intelligence from a spy satellite; no one wants the US destroyed. China has too much of their money loaned to Pres. Zero to risk loosing the debt.
If there is an attack, I suspect it will be either an invastion, a missle launch or some terroristic activity that will blow up in their face in a Wiley C.Coyote sort of fiasco. Muslims aren’t very good at waging an offensive war, that requires bravery, thought, intelligence, and a grasp of the fundamentals of techology - things that have always been their weak point.
We face a threat from Iranian or NoKo or both in my view. I don’t believe we are in any danger from orbital attack any time soon though, I just don’t believe either Country is anywhere close to the technology to pull something like that off.
Last year I read several articles at different sources that described earlier Iranian missile tests as appearing to resemble at test of an EMP attack profile.
There is an enormous difference between achieving orbital velocity and just launching a rocket straight up. For orbit you have to accelerate the payload to 17,500 MPH. For a successful EMP attack you need 200-300 miles straight up.
The other thing is that complex and difficult to build high-yield thermonuclear devices damp out EMP. A simple uranium bomb detonation at altitude would produce a destructive EMP pulse that would be amplified by the atmosphere and make it more effective (The Compton Effect).
Iran and NoKo are not stupid. They know that if either one of them dared to try a missile attack on CONUS, we would wipe them off the map, and in spades. Why would they shoot one missile at us if they know the response would be hundred if not thousands of shots in return??
The whole idea of an EMP attack is to technologically incapacitate the target country and “level the field” so to speak. William Forstchen’s book “One Second After”, in which he deals with the aftermath of an EMP attack on the US, goes into this line of reasoning, and it is scary how badly such an attack would hurt us. In the book, the attackers load enhanced Scud missiles and launchers into cargo containers, and fire them from the Gulf of Mexico. Only minutes to do anything and there is little to do but hunker down and see what’s left afterwards.
They have what is essentially an ICBM in low orbit. It could have something to do with the promised hard blow against the West for 11 February. Maybe Iran already has a warhead or two and this is the way they will demonstrate that capability- with an EMP shot at the US and an ultimatum of some sort or just an over-ocean blast. At any rate they have promised some sort of bad action and I am loading up gas cans for what I
kind of expect will be a large spike in the price of oil and thus gas. If it happens I will be riding my scooter with the car parked for a while, at least. I got the scoot when the price of gas passed $4. I figure, considering the expected life of the scoot and regular expense differences between it and my car, it is cost effective to ride the two wheeler when regular gas at the pump is over $2.60.
No, they do not.
an emp will not affect the nuclear subs stationed around the world . An Iranian EMP would hopefully be met by turning Iran into glass.