TOOMEY LEADS SPECTER BY 9 (RASMUSSEN)

Republican Pat Toomey now leads incumbent Senator Arlen Specter 49% to 40% in Pennsylvania’s race for the U.S. Senate. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters also finds Toomey with a 43% to 35% lead over Democratic challenger Joe Sestak.

A month ago Toomey led Specter by four and Sestak by six. In the state’s Democratic Senate Primary race, Specter now leads Sestak by 21 points.

Just 41% of Pennsylvania voters favor the health care legislation currently before Congress while 57% are opposed. Those figures include 22% who Strongly Favor the legislation and 47% who are Strongly Opposed. Those who Strongly Oppose the health care plan overwhelmingly prefer Toomey over either Democrat. Those who Strongly Favor the plan prefer the Democrats.

Pennsylvania attitudes towards the health care plan are similar to the national average. The health care issue played a key role in Tuesday’s stunning Massachusetts special Senate election.

Just five percent (5%) of Pennsylvania voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 51% say poor. Only 31% say it’s getting better, while 42% say it’s getting worse.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Political analyst Larry Sabato now rates the Pennsylvania Senate race as a toss-up, but, given the current political climate, he says Toomey would be the winner if the election were held today. Sabato also projects that if the election were held today, the Democrats' 59-seat majority in the Senate would be down to 52.

Specter is viewed very favorably by 16% of Pennsylvania voters but very unfavorably by more than twice as many (33%).

Twelve percent (12%) have a very favorable view of Toomey, while 10% regard him very unfavorably. For Sestak, very favorables total eight percent (8%), and very unfavorables stand at 11%.

These numbers for all three are little changed over the past several months. That could suggest that Toomey’s improving prospects are due more to the political environment than the candidates. At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with strong opinions more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Sixty-seven percent (67%) of voters in the Keystone State say it’s at least somewhat likely there will be another terrorist attack in the United States this year. Sixty-eight percent (68%) believe the Christmas Day bomber should be tried by a military tribunal as a terrorist. Just 20% want him tried in a civilian court.

Thirty-four percent (34%) give the government good or excellent marks for its response to the Christmas Day bombing while 33% say the response was poor.

Specter, a longtime GOP senator, switched parties and became a Democrat in April just after a Rasmussen Reports poll in the state showed him trailing conservative challenger Toomey by 21 points in a likely Republican Senate Primary match-up. Particularly damaging to Specter among Pennsylvania Republicans was his vote for President Obama's economic stimulus plan, one of only three cast by Republicans for it.

Obama, Pennsylvania Governor Edward Rendell and other top Democrats welcomed Specter because it strengthened their party’s majority in the Senate and promised to campaign for his reelection. But Sestak, a retired Navy admiral, opted for a primary challenge, arguing that he is the “real Democrat” in the race.

Pennsylvania voters are narrowly divided in their views of the president’s overall job performance. Forty-six percent (46%) approve of how he’s doing his job, while 53% disapprove. Those ratings are down slightly from a month ago but are similar to the national numbers in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

At this point, Rendell’s numbers as governor aren’t a big help to the prospective Democratic senatorial candidate. Forty-three percent (43%) approve of the job he's doing, while 56% disapprove. For the governor, those numbers reflect a slight improvement over the past month. Still, just 14% Strongly Approve while 29% Strongly Disapprove.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Pennsylvania during the 2008 campaign, Rasmussen Reports polling showed Barack Obama winning the state by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 55% to 44%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports polling showed John Kerry leading George W. Bush in Pennsylvania 49% to 47%. Kerry won 51% to 49%.

In the 2006 Pennsylvania governor’s race, Rasmussen polling showed Ed Rendell defeating Lynn Swan 56% to 38%. Rendell won 60% to 40%. In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Bob Casey defeating Rick Santorum 55% to 42%. Casey won 59% to 41%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

New data has been released on Senate races in Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Illinois, Connecticut, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Florida and California.

Election night polling also been released from Tuesday's special Senate election in Massachusetts.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

I wouldn’t be fooled by Specter being way ahead of Sestack at this point. That is mostly due to name recognition I believe. If Sestack gets any money raised, he’ll get on the airwaves and the extreme left will elect him over Specter in the primary.

I think it’s going to be Toomey against Sestack. As far as I know Sestack has voted lock step with Nancy Pelosi. I want to see Toomey hammer him on the stimulous and voting for cap and tax. The cap and tax issue should play well in this state because it’s a big coal and natural gas state.

Wonderful news!

Watch for the Dem Party smear campaign with Toomey leading so strongly against BOTH their candidates.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.