Apple App Store Has Lost $450 Million To Piracy

24/7 Wall Street ^ | January 13, 2010 at 8:39 am | Garrett W. McIntyre with Phil MacDonald

[Swordmaker]

This $450 million estimate is very doubtful. Pirated apps can only be used on jail-broken iPhones as iTunes will remove unauthorized apps. Plus the estimated average app price of $3 is way too high as most apps are 99¢. Who steals an app that would cost you pocket change to buy?

It is estimated that only 5% of iPhones are jail-broken... so how can they be using 75% of the downloaded apps which is what would be required to account for $450 million of lost revenue. The article is exaggerated FUD.

[Swordmaker]

This FUD is aimed directly at iPhone developers who are hoping to make money developing the next big iPhone app...PING!

Mac Ping!

If you want on or off the Mac Ping List, Freepmail me.

[pnh102]

This $450 million estimate is very doubtful.

I am going to assume this comes from the mythical "lost sale" argument trotted out by the movie and music industries and as such is completely arbitrary.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

This tears it.

We need stronger copyright laws that allow the App Software Alliance to kick in your door in the middle of the night and check all your devices for pirated apps and fine you $10,000 for each pirated app and ten years in jail.

Will that make you happy, Mr. Apple?

[Nervous Tick]

>> The article is exaggerated FUD.

Most piracy analyses assume that ALL pirated software WOULD have been purchased if not pirated.

This is simply false. The reality is, nearly all pirates would have simply foregone having the software if it couldn’t be pirated. Practically no revenue loss at all.

Piracy is still wrong and harmful, but these sorts of analyses are self-serving nonsense.

[Nervous Tick]

>> allow the App Software Alliance to kick in your door in the middle of the night and check all your devices for pirated apps

...and don’t even THINK of hiding your jailbroken iPhone in a secret pocket sewn into your tighty whiteys while you sleep. They’ll find it there, too, and it won’t be pretty when they’re done taking it.

[darkwing104]

Apple App Store Has Lost $450 Million To Piracy

Even if Microsoft claimed that I would still have a hard time believing it.

[thefactor]

They lost it, or just didn’t make it?

[Richard Kimball]

In all fairness, I make the same argument when people talk about all the applications for Windows over the Mac. I think there are several hundred word processors for Windows, but how many is a person going to use?

[TXnMA]

It would be interesting to know what percentage of Apple computer owners versus what percentage of other computer owners have jailbroken phones with pirated apps...

Any guesses?

[The Antiyuppie]

I, too, call bull****. Most apps (0.99-2.99) aren’t worth the effort to steal on a $200-$300 phone that costs $70+ a month to operate, jailbroken or not.

[eyeamok]

Bingo, we have a winner. you are More Correct than most people could imagine. If it aint free I don’t want it.

[Talisker]

Apple has a long history of... maximizing it's profits. There are plenty of former Apple employees who had the nerve to go independent and then try to develop their own software and hardware ideas... death by a murder of multinational lawyers is an ugly thing, and it has nothing to do with the law (or "protecting" innovation, for that matter).

[TheStickman]

This article makes little sense to me. Don’t see Apple letting that much cash get away from them quietly.

[packrat35]

And you would be correct!

[packrat35]

It absolutely shocks me how many ringtones get bought at $2.99 a pop. I read that the average phone user has 5. No way I would ever pay that. If it ain’t free, it ain’t ringing on my phone.

[The Truth Will Make You Free]

I've always considered those using pirated software are likely doing the vendor a favor. They likely wouldn't be using the software if it had to be purchased, and they are increasing market share for the product.

Even if the $450 million is accurate, that at least offsets some of the money Apple and app developers have taken for the purchase of apps where there no convenient or reasonable way to get a refund on a lousy product.

[rockrr]

And they’ll find it because the phone will be programmed to narc you out!

[Swordmaker]

Most piracy analyses assume that ALL pirated software WOULD have been purchased if not pirated.

This is more than that... this is an assumption that there is even that much piracy going on. iPhone piracy works only on jail-broken phones... and those are only 5% of iPhones. To reach such a number as $450 million lost revenue, better than 75% of all purchasable download apps in the wild would actually have to be pirated and therefore would have to be running on jail-broken phones. Absurd. For every app sold, according to these bozos, three were pirated. These numbers were either pulled out of their noses or made up on the spot.

[Swordmaker]

This tears it.
We need stronger copyright laws that allow the App Software Alliance to kick in your door in the middle of the night and check all your devices for pirated apps and fine you $10,000 for each pirated app and ten years in jail.
Will that make you happy, Mr. Apple?

You seem to think that Apple is complaining. This is an "analyst" pulling numbers out of his navel. Apple is quite pleased with the results of the App Store.