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As bad as Windows has been during the past three or so years, this is a golden opportunity for Linux or another OS to really take off. Vista had to be one of the worst operating systems I’ve ever seen. It’s right up there with Windows ME. Sure it isn’t as unreliable as ME, but on balance, the terrible design/user experience makes it as bad ME to run on your machine. I still can’t believe Microsoft actually paid for the development of such a terrible OS.(that’s saying something)

Windows 7 appears to be an improvement, but it’s still built on that terrible Vista UI, it only asks you fewer questions while using it. IMO, Microsoft needed to completely start from scratch to recover from Vista, and with Win7 they haven’t done that. The only hope Win7 has going for it is that it doesn’t seem to have the overwhelming negative vibe that in the user community that Vista had when it was released.

I believe we are seeing the beginning of the end of Microsoft’s dominance in the home desktop PC market. Within 10 years I expect Linux, and especially Mac to be at a parity with Windows. I was at a Best Buy tonight, and I thought it was very telling that almost as much floor space was dedicated to Mac machines as Windows. To the end user population out there, it’s no longer ‘cool’ to use Windows, and in that environment people will give a serious look at computers that aren’t running Windows while shopping.

> ...the beginning of the end of Microsoft’s dominance in the home desktop PC market. Within 10 years I expect Linux, and especially Mac to be at a parity with Windows...

As one who has used all of the above plus others for decades, let me comment that:

Only Microsoft can kill Windows. Vista tried mightily, but failed. Win7 will likely resurrect it.
In the words of a Microsoft spokesman years ago: "You're right, Windows is full of flaws. But it's GOOD ENOUGH FOR YOU." Most computer users accept and believe that nonsense and will continue to ad infinitum.
Apple is successful because it is a minority player. Their business premise does not work well if they gain parity with Windows. I would put the threshold of danger at 25% marketshare. If they exceed 30% they will have to stop being Apple-like.
The Linux community will never become business-capable. So far, IBM and Novell have tried to push Linux, and the only places it works are the ones it's already in -- servers and geeks.

I use 'em all, pros and cons. They all have their place. If Microsoft stumbles again like Vista, they may fall over, and perhaps Apple will pick up more marketshare again. But I don't see the overall balance shifting much, whether in 5 years, 10 years, or more.

The thing that will change it is when (not if) the personal computer model of computing disappears. That may be on the horizon at 10 or 15 years, but I don't know what will replace it.