Posted on 09/04/2009 7:43:24 AM PDT by BenLurkin
Nouriel Roubini, a leading economist who predicted the scale of global financial troubles, said a U-shaped recovery is possible, with leading economies undeperforming perhaps for 3 years.
He said there is also an increasing risk of a "double-dip" scenario, however.
"I believe that the basic scenario is going to be one of a U-shaped economic recovery where growth is going to remain below trend ... especially for the advanced economies, for at least 2 or 3 years," he said at a news conference here.
"Within that U scenario I also see a small probability, but a rising probability, that if we don't get the exit strategy right we could end up with a relapse in growth ... a double-dip recession," he added.
Roubini, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, said he was concerned economies which save a lot, such as China, Japan and Germany, might not boost consumption enough to compensate for any fall in demand from "overspenders" such as the United States and Britain.
"My concern is that for a number or reasons ... (it is unlikely that) countries like China, other emerging markets in Asia, Japan, Germany in Europe, will have a significant increase in the consumption rate and a reduction in the savings rate."
Roubini said he thought central banks should pay more attention to asset prices when deciding interest rate policy and encouraged U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to follow this route.
"I think that asset prices, asset bubbles should become much more important in the setting of interest rates, in addition to concerns about inflation and growth. (Bernanke's) views until now have been different. Hopefully this crisis has taught a lesson."
Roubini's outlook remains downbeat, however.
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
Noriel:
With residential borrowers continuing to default, commercial mortgages starting to default, banks continuing to fail, Obama/Dems destroying our economy with massive, reckless spending for Social/corrupt reasons, ...
HOW can we recover from this?
Answer: we can’t unless we throw the Democrats out ASAP.
Everyone should read the history of Argentina, particularly about Juan Peron and the unions. Strikingly similar to Obama, particularly with respect to the media declaring Michelle as the new “Evita.” Labor unions creating havoc from which Argentina still hasn’t recovered. OUR FUTURE!
At least Peron was a soldier. Obama is too cowardly and hates the US too much to have ever served in the military.
An L_________-shape is more likely, from what I see acomin' down the Pike.
Yup. This guy must be on drugs or an incompetent if he sees a U. Maybe Obama got to him.
Ping!
Yup - you hit the nail on the head. Others who are very bearish are Harry Dent, Dr. Gary Shilling, Eteven Leeb and others.
The commercial/industrial stuff has not yet hit the fan at local banks. The annual loan renewal season is coming soon. Loan officers will hear the mantra upgrade or out the door.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.