Right now I am more concerned about a great big blob just south of Fla then Ana. That blob is a lot closer to me then Ana.
Tropical Depression 3 has formed from what was 90L, and Ana Holds as a low end Tropical Storm.
Ana is moving west, ahead of Ana is a bit of westerly shear, this is taking some of the moisture north and west of it, and also is clearing the dry air for TD#3 behind it. The center is also exposed again. Ana and TD#3 appear to "touch" with the outflow on the visible satellite.
Ana will probably remain weak while the shear affects it. From studying the water vapor and some model runs, it looks like Ana will be more on the southerly side of the forecast cone. This means that it will likely move over the Caribbean islands, giving them lots of rain and some wind, but at the same time prevent it from strengthening. With the dry air, shear, and "grasping" aspect of TD#3 which may catch up to it, Ana may very well fall apart again.
That said the most likely future for Ana is a weak tropical storm, how weak depends on how much interaction it has with the Caribbean islands. It appears, right now, that it'll go south of south Florida, barely.
If it weakens much more it may go much further south and west (more on the southern cusp of the cone). If it were to err, I think the NHC may be too far north. Still the uncertainty exists, and I think the cone in general is valid. Intensity completely depends on how well Ana fights the shear and the interaction with land.
Those in South Florida/Keys will want to watch and be ready. There is a good, but not great, chance that they may have some affect from the system. The small size and complex situation make it difficult to predict. I'm not very confident about it right now.
Other indicators for Ana, include changes in the forward motion of TD#3, the location of the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas, and the wave off the Florida Keys (Which itself may be worth watching as it moves into the very soup hot Gulf) Ana is also elongated slightly north/south.
In short keep watch, Ana may well stay south of Florida (southern part of the cone). Those in the Leewards will still want to prepare for a Tropical Storm (Which is to say expect a windy nasty day). Ana is a small storm so if conditions around it change, it could wind up quickly. It will be vital to watch it over the next several days.
TD#3 right now has the better chance to be slightly northward in the Islands. The cone for this one is dead on, I think. Right now somewhere along the east coast is the most likely spot for TD#3.
The wave now coming off Africa may be yet another storm to watch in the next several days.
Please do me a favor. If Galveston is a target area again, PLEASE don’t wait until the last second to get out!