Tropical Storms Ana & Bill

NOAA/NHC ^ | 15 August 2009 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2009 Atlantic tropical season is heating up with Tropical Storm Ana forming about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands, and Invest 90, a large Cape Verde system showing substantial promise for development. Currently, neither of the two systems pose an immediate threat to land. Long term forecasts indicate potential threat to Florida, while a third tropical wave is poised off of the So. Florida coast.

Tropical Storm Ana

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Three Day Tracking Map

Storm Track Archive Nice animated progression of 5 day forecast tracks

Buoy Data W Central Atlantic and East Caribbean

Buoy Data Florida

Storm 02 (Ana) Model Tracks

Storm 90 (Invest 90) Model Tracks

Satellite & Radar Images

Ana Visible Satellite Still Image

Ana IR Image

Ana WV Image

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[Eaker]

Early season thanks!

[ichabod1]

Greetings, NautiNurse and the rest of the storm watchers. Ichabod1, Veteran of Hurricane Ike, reporting for duty from Houston, TX.

[STARWISE]

Central Florida Hurricane Center - 2:45 PM Update 15 August 2009

Tropical Depression 3 has formed from what was 90L, and Ana Holds as a low end Tropical Storm.

Ana is moving west, ahead of Ana is a bit of westerly shear, this is taking some of the moisture north and west of it, and also is clearing the dry air for TD#3 behind it. The center is also exposed again. Ana and TD#3 appear to "touch" with the outflow on the visible satellite.

Ana will probably remain weak while the shear affects it. From studying the water vapor and some model runs, it looks like Ana will be more on the southerly side of the forecast cone. This means that it will likely move over the Caribbean islands, giving them lots of rain and some wind, but at the same time prevent it from strengthening. With the dry air, shear, and "grasping" aspect of TD#3 which may catch up to it, Ana may very well fall apart again.

That said the most likely future for Ana is a weak tropical storm, how weak depends on how much interaction it has with the Caribbean islands. It appears, right now, that it'll go south of south Florida, barely.

If it weakens much more it may go much further south and west (more on the southern cusp of the cone). If it were to err, I think the NHC may be too far north. Still the uncertainty exists, and I think the cone in general is valid. Intensity completely depends on how well Ana fights the shear and the interaction with land.

Those in South Florida/Keys will want to watch and be ready. There is a good, but not great, chance that they may have some affect from the system. The small size and complex situation make it difficult to predict. I'm not very confident about it right now.

Other indicators for Ana, include changes in the forward motion of TD#3, the location of the Upper Level Low near the Bahamas, and the wave off the Florida Keys (Which itself may be worth watching as it moves into the very soup hot Gulf) Ana is also elongated slightly north/south.

In short keep watch, Ana may well stay south of Florida (southern part of the cone). Those in the Leewards will still want to prepare for a Tropical Storm (Which is to say expect a windy nasty day). Ana is a small storm so if conditions around it change, it could wind up quickly. It will be vital to watch it over the next several days.

TD#3 right now has the better chance to be slightly northward in the Islands. The cone for this one is dead on, I think. Right now somewhere along the east coast is the most likely spot for TD#3.

The wave now coming off Africa may be yet another storm to watch in the next several days.

[ConservativeTeen]

That’s great, just when I have to move to South Florida because my law school moved down there from Michigan, a tropical storm might hit.

[Old Professer]

Dry air, wind shear and water temperature conditions are far from ideal for strong or persistent development for all three storms at this point, TD3 has a huge clud mass but a bifurcated center currently; the nearest tropical wave brought heavy rains to the Dominican Republic yesterday and could add to Florida’s generous total for this year but I wouldn’t batten down just yet.

At best, this is a relief from the boredom at the hurricane center.

[Old Professer]

More like life-support, there’s a lot of pressure on the met folks to name one by the middle of this month.

[NautiNurse]

Welcome to the Sunshine State!

Ha--I would take law school any day over my Saturday challenges with a rambunctious puppy, two angry cats, and a miserable pneumonia patient in the house. No wonder I can't type and spell today.

[NautiNurse]

[Old Professer]

They are not on the same track except by a few hundred miles, the fact that the larger storm is following close to leading one argues against them combining forces, rather they will begin to compete for the favorable conditions with the stronger (lower-pressure) center winning out.

The most important thing is the water temp below the storms and the wind shear at the tops of the thunderheads; these are determined by upper air circulation and current variables.

Beyond filling the tank and laying in some grub, I wouldn’t rush around just yet.

[Old Professer]

It would help if you said where here is.

[NautiNurse]

I wouldn’t batten down just yet.

Makes sense to me. If I lived in Tennessee, I wouldn't batten down for a tropical storm either. Those of us who live in Florida need to pay attention to Atlantic tropical systems.

[Armedanddangerous]

wonder whatever happened to that guy?

[NautiNurse]

Hiya rodguy! So your tropical wave is a big rain producer. We had one too the other day, but all the rain went north of us.

[NautiNurse]

Chief bartender at the White House?

[NautiNurse]

Great to see you back for another season! Is everything back to baseline for you post-Ike?

[Armedanddangerous]

well, they apparently dont do background checks there anymore, so he could fit right in.

I wonder how the Tampa area is going to fare from these storms? I have two relatives living thereabouts.

[SomeCallMeTim]

Thanks for the ping... been wondering when this season was going to get started.

I always worry for Texas when they have a bad drought. Nature has a way of bringing things back to the average.. what better way than a tropical system with 10-20” of rain!

[Rocky]

Tropical Storm - Damage Potential: Minimal

Whoever wrote that wasn’t in Houston for Tropical Storm Allison.

[Old Professer]

The latest Quickscat (5:00pm)shows very poor center activity and max winds under 30 for Ana while Bill has more activity and winds of 40+; both are a long way from CAT1 at this time.

Don’t know what’s holding Ana up.

[ichabod1]

Yes, I was very fortunate. Rode out the storm just fine. Power was off for two weeks. Found a friends apartment that somehow avoided the power outage and stayed there.

I’ve been starting to lay in some canned goods but that’s about it for storm prep. I’m not going to go the generator route — decided it’s just too much money for too little usage. But I realize now I need to do better with emergency light. The few flashlights and tea lights I had were not sufficient.

It was exciting to be one of the ones who was posting and posting that night until whamm-o, off the air for the duration.