Posted on 07/10/2009 7:23:26 AM PDT by Perdogg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XNr8bWqrP5s&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_MdhG6bxao
Airdrop food with messages to not fight well behind the lines, and I believe the troops of NK would not fight.
Chem and bio, usually with an emphasis on chemical agents.
Remember, chem generally does not prevent well-protected troops from accomplishing their mission. They just increase the mission accomplishment time 200 to 800 percent.
And this is exactly what the DPRK would want in this case.
I don’t think that estimate takes into account the fighting spirit of the general population. The situation would devolve into all out street to street warfare. The ROK will not succumb simply because tanks are in the area. DRRK would have to raze ROK to the ground.
Marines from Okinawa could be on site in less than a week, and ships would be on station coordinating directed fire support and non-nuc cruise missile strikes within 3 days. Significant support exists far closer than TX. Not to mention an entire ARG within 10 days cruise from the IOOA.
It is far from a rosy picture, but I think you paint it more bleak that it really is.
Here are the basics. KPA has 83 divisions with all their attack elements forward, sitting in bunkers, ready to go, They routinely test their capabilities and are moving out in 90 to 110 seconds after the button is pushed in Pyongyang.
There is no need for KPA Corps or Army Hq to get involved. Everything is ready for the Big Button Push.
Here's how they would come.
AN-12s, an incredibly capable old biplane would load squads of ready-to-die DPRK Special Forces and fly out to sea and back in in the South or very low over the DMZ. They would crash land in HQ areas, comm centers, ports, weapon concentration areas.
There would be at least 160 attempts. Say only 50% get through. 75% of the remainder die. They would not care. They are assisted by thousands of agents previously infiltrated south. Subs land other teams.
One of my favorite US Army assignments was to play aggressor against other Army units. We could raise havoc at brigade and even divisional level with fewer than 20 men! We always cheated... and therefore we won. (One of our favorite tricks was to "borrow" local Highway Department trucks or Good Humor / Mister Frosty trucks. Ring those stupid bells and they would let us in anywhere!)
Then 80 Divisions, 80! would advance on 5-8 small but extremely rapidly moving fronts, preceeded by the largest artillery barage in history. You do not beat that, unless you use nukes, especially since they are probably using slime. There would be huge infrastructure attacks as well. TV and radio are off the air. Telephone circuits are dead. Comm frequencies, from military to police and fire are all jammed. The electricity and water are off. There is panic everywhere.
By the time the civilian leadership in Seoul and DC react, Seoul and most of the country are overrun. If the populace of any city fights too hard, simply bypass it.
The Japanese are told “stay out or get nuked. Deny landing rights to the Americans or you get nuked.”
DC is told, stop resisting and your forces will be given safe passage off the peninsula. Resist and die.
Reinforcements will not be able to use Japan. Assembly in the States will take weeks and months. Heavy equipment will take a month to get there, at the least.
Remember, when we faced an army much less capable than the KPA of the DPRK, (Saddam's) we had friendly ports to go to, many forces only came from Germany, and it still took us 6 months. We are now heavilly committed in SWA. Reinforcements would have to be mostly ANG and AFNG and Reserve units.
At most, we could get 2 corps there in 4 months.
By contrast, The KPA army was composed of approximately 1,003,000 personnel organized into 20 corps consisting of 176 divisions and brigades! The army is equipped with very large numbers of artillery and armored fighting vehicles and approximately 70 percent of active units are based near the border with South Korea. The KPA also has a special operations force comprising over 90,000 personnel
They have another 4.1 million in rather well organized reserves.
Where we have platoons and companies. they have brigades and divisions. No technology, other than nuke, beats those odds. Sure they are hungry, but they would be fighting to “go where the food is.”
I have been part of gaming this situation in DC 5 times. (I usually play the DOD, WH or DOS spokesperson. Once I got assasinated in the middle of a briefing by DPRK agents posing as a Thai news crew! Went to dinner at the Palms while the rest still fought it out!) Even with out best retired officers running the show, we always lose within 6 days. Once, the South Korean gmvt turned on us and we lost in 36 hours.
Yes, we can win, but it would take nukes on the major lines of advance. Probably 7 small (200 kt) ones. (THAT IS NOT AN OFFICIAL USGMVT POSITION, ONLY MY OPINION)
The threat of nukes prevented prior DPRK attacks, but what dictator fears the US with BO as CIC/POTUS?
It's a bitch, but it reality.
I’ve read two books by defectors that say that NK quit believing they could take SK in the 90’s. NK forces just cannot keep a state of readiness anymore. They have no leadership. There are no combat vets that can teach the skills needed. They cannot keep the tanks running. The men are more focused on “getting” than fighting.
You are from/in California. I am in Florida.
How do you tell the difference between a Florida-grown orange and a California orange?
It's simple. Cut a hole in the bottom of the orange. Suck on it for the juice. If it sucks back, it's a California orange!
:)
Short version - if there is one - I disagree that specials are needed.
A couple of destroyers off the coast lobbing shells and tomahawks into the line of advance would have more than a minor impact. Aircraft off the GW might have something to say about an advance as well. USAF support from Japan would clearly have impact. The John S. McCain, or similar ship on station, should render the threat of a missile attack from NK moot. Should. Depends on the ROE - and that's where the really scary thoughts begin... Bad ROE got us into this mess in the first place, and it darn sure won't get us out.
Anyway - an immediate remote/airborne CAS/Attack response in coordination with ROK resistance should give us time to get an ARG on station (which a competent CinC would consider targeting for landing north rather than simply in defense of Seoul). If/when war breaks out tactical responses should support a strategic plan for repatriating NK into the free world. A defensive stalemate should never be an acceptable solution again.
It would be bloody, ugly, and violent, but specials are not the only answer. However, I think we agree on one point, and that is that the best defense of ROK right now is the legitimized threat that NK would be annihilated. We need to make sure the commie bastards know that specials are in fact an option if needed. I don't know the current intel obviously, but it looks from the outside as though China may be willing to let them swing - they are more of a drain than an asset anymore. One of my greatest concerns is POTUS taking the special option off the table - it would actually put us in a position of weakness - but he doesn't understand that and may do any number of idiotic things diplomatically to appease them. Another frightening thought is that they probably see Clinton and think (know?) they can push her around just like they did her husband.
On the other hand, ICE CREAM!
One of my favorite memories regarding FL/Ca jokes-rivalries happened while I was stationed in Pensacola - the FL orange crop had frozen - which of course meant the sky was falling and the world was about to end as far as FL news was concerned - amidst the hoopla I was shopping at the NEX and saw that the orange prices weren't too crazy so i grabbed a few - and smiled as I saw the CA grown sticker...
And make all the sucking jokes you want - if I have to reluctantly claim SF as part of my state then you have to do the same for South Beach and the Keys.
We totally agree re: TOTUS taking options off table.
The danger is, and it is a huge one for SK, that KPA would take, AND WOULD BE WILLING TO TAKE, all the casualties we could inflict, and still keep marching south, as long as we stayed conventional.
Sort of a “Triumph of The Will” kind of thing.
NoKo would collapse after a short period of conflict. They would get pushed back and any recession in the 38th parallel would yield a flood of refugees that would make the Mexican invasion look like a festival.
Koreans love their brothers but the three generations of brainwashing might not be enough to break the bond.
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