Posted on 07/04/2009 8:09:14 AM PDT by Mom MD
Today is day one! Armstrong riding. Astana is back! Predictions? Other comments? Does someone have the ping list from last year?
I think Contador would have won in 2008 if his team had been allowed to participate in the race.
Lance tweeted this morning that he woke up to anti-doping control. Alberto, Andreas and himself. Don’t they automatically test the stage winner every day? That would mean they checked AC twice in 12 hours.
“I am also suspicious of AC. When Lance rode up mountains like that, it was b/c he had been through chemo which had changed his body. He was physiologically different. AC has not been through a radical change like that. How can he possibly climb like that against the best riders in the world?”
Lance started out as a strong, muscular rider. Remember that his introduction to the sport was as a tri-athlete, when he was considered the one of the best young tri-athletes, actually, probably the best, in the US. He then switched to pure biking. Afterwards, we have the cancer and his body transformation into a lighter body.
Cantador started with a lighter body and was always a climber from his teenage years, and his weakness was in the power events such as the time trials. His rise to the top was determined by his ability to develop beyond the climbing.
I think the idea is that Cantador is very similar to Lance of, say, 2000-2001, but Cantador got there by developing his strength and endurance, whereas Lance got there by developing a lighter body.
Stage 16 could be the most exciting stage of the race. The peleton should be completely split apart on the first climb.
Hiya, Stat-boy. Grand-St-Bernard will certainly do that.
Would you like to be added to the ping list?
The Spanish chemists are always 1 step ahead.
The Day that Lance Armstrong Lost the Tour
By Bob Roll
Verbier might be looked back upon the day that Lance Armstrong lost the 2009 Tour de France and the day that Alberto Contador established his superiority, but I assure you, that this bike race is not over. Considering the stages to come Lance Armstrong did what was necessary today, although it was unbelievably painful to keep himself in contention to win the Tour de France overall. The end of the day Lance finished 9th, but not that far behind Contador who was absolutely flying up the last mountain.
Verbier proves to be a strategic point in the race and early in the tour we hadn’t had a mountain top finish which didn’t provide us anything to look back upon as a pivotal stage, but the stage to verbier most certainly did do that. Armstrong finds himself in second place overall, 1:37 seconds behind Alberto Contador his own teammate. I promise you that if Contador was on a different team and Lance was not a teammate it would be a completely different set of circumstances and he would have promised at the end of today’s stage to attack relentlessly to chip away at that lead, although they are teammates I believe that the aggression is not over with and that we will see an attacking on the final Saturday of the bike race up to the monster of the provence Mont Ventoux.
Between now and then is the Time Trial around Annecy . The time trial of course, an individual event, each man against the clock on his own. Lance Armstrong- little bit heavier than Alberto Contador little bit faster on the flats a little more power and the Annecy Time Trial, a much different affair then the stage 1 Time Trial which had a big hill half way through. The advantage there was toward Contador physiologically speaking, but in the last Time Trial of the bike race this coming Thursday Lance has a chance to take back some of the time that Contador got on today’s stage. This bike race is most certainly not done- wrapped –signed- sealed or delivered. For Contador there’s still a lot of racing left most of which favors Armstrong and I think after the Time Trial they will be much more closely matched in time then it will be an all out battle on the slopes of Mont Ventoux.
Today was a great stage it showed the world that Alberto Contador was supreme when it comes to climbing, but the Tour de France is long and the road is winding and nobody knows the outcome until it happens and I’m sure that Lance has not yet surrendered. Lots of racing to come…stay tuned.
Stage 15 Review
By Phil Liggett
So it happened! All of the riders who hoped to win the Tour de France in Paris next Sunday came to the foot of the climb to Verbier in Switzerland together, and by the top just one was on his own saluting the crowd with his customary sign-off of imitating a pistol shot.
Alberto Contador did not win the Tour de France at the Swiss ski resort, but he has established himself as the race leader while, at the same time, becoming the undisputed leader of his team. He leads his Astana team mate Lance Armstrong by 1min 37sec and Britain's Bradley Wiggins by 1min 46sec.
After Monday's day of rest the race will resume in the Alps and the riders will have to work out how they can beat the slightly-built Contador who will now be able to count on his seven surviving team members for support.
On this 15th stage from Pontarlier a group of 10 riders dominated most of the day and for a long time Spain's Mikel Astarloza had recouped enough lost time to lead the race on the road.
Astana monitored the chase and closed everything down as the last five-miles climb to the ski station began.
The riders hit the slopes so fast that a pecking order quickly established.
The leader for the last week, Rinaldo Nocentini, was among the first to crack and he was left behind to slip from first to sixth overall, losing 2min 36sec to Contador who had started the day just six seconds behind him.
Armstrong lacked the top end speed he had when he retired in 2005 yet, showing a grim determination he fought to finish ninth and moved up to hold second overall, just 97 seconds behind Contador.
"Yeh, I think I've lost the Tour, but we'll see." he said at the finish. However, with the six days that lie ahead, this race is far from over yet.
” I think Contador would have won in 2008 if his team had been allowed to participate in the race.”
Agree. He looks good enough to have been in the fight for the yellow.
Interesting to see Andy Schleck indicating it’s not over yet.
We could be in for some interesting battles in the next couple of stages as he/Sastre/Evans obviously have to give it their all to get on the podium or have a chance to win.
That to me will only happen with an accident/collapse by Astana / Contador
Question.
Last year, I injured myself, and ended up with 4 weeks of physical therapy sessions. So I got to know my PT, we’re chatting & everything one day, and somehow or another the subject of Lance Armstrong came up. All of the PT’s in the room got animated and I was told that they believe he’s a big fat cheater. Why? I ask. He passes the doping tests right?
I was told that EPO is sometimes given to cancer patients post-chemotherapy, and that there will always be a positive reading for Lance, albeit small. I was told that what that means is, he was granted a tolerance and has to stay within it. Something like that. Meaning a genius level doctor might or might not have been able to futz within the limits of such a set tolerance over the years.
Was he pulling my leg? Outright lying? or on the level?
They were implying that the answer is: “because he can.” So, I don’t know. Just one of those anecdotal stories that I thought I’d throw out there.
Garmin didn't up the pace to get Farrar in position, they upped the pace to keep HIncapie out of yellow. The peloton was going to finish starting with 12th place no matter what- they were not going to catch the break. If they had a chance to catch, circumstances would be utterly different. They were all going to come into the finish together regardless of when that happened to be- 2min out, 4 min out, whatever. IMO they are tired of hearing about Columbia and as the other US team in the race, decided to work to deny GH the mj. Columbia has won 60 races to Garmin's 10. They have 4 stage wins and are competitive for the green jersey. I think Garmin chased out of pure spite.
In general I agree with your comments about Cavendish although I think that none of us were in that bunch sprint and really know what happened. In viewing the replays, I don't really see interference. What we also don't know, though, is that this may be something that has been brewing for several stages and the race organizers finally decided to squash it. Personally, I think a lot of what goes on in those sprints is probably dirty or close to it. McEwen used to push and shove a lot!
One more point: did you hear that Thor lodged the complaint? His director sportif? The race officials? I didn't hear who made the complaint. I also did not hear an outcry from Columbia which I fully expected even if he was guilty as heck. Did you hear squawks from them? I guess I think if they didn't squeal over it, maybe they knew it was legit.
My thoughts:
Hogwash.
I do not think your PTs have much of a clue. I do not know the half-life of EPO, off hand, but any layman could tell you that, because EPO is a hormone, it is measured in days, not years; and when it is used patients receive doses every day or two. When international tests were devised to detect non-human EPO, I do not remember hearing about any allowance for Lance because he would “always have a positive reading.” That makes no sense. Hormones do not stay around in our body, and the concentration would decrease day after day as the body removes the EPO.
One of the most common side effects of chemotherapy is that it destroys red blood cells, causing anemia. EPO counteracts this effect. There's nothing mysterious about why Armstrong would have been given it.
EPO's half-life is actually measured in hours--4-13, to be exact. Detection depends mainly on establishing a baseline red blood cell count, then looking for unexplained, sudden increases in that count.
A report on a German site I read said that Cervelo lodged the complaint. Cavendish & Renshaw supposedly dived to the sideboard to cut Hushovd off.
Glancing through the UK Eurosport boards, it seemed to me most Brit posters thought the ruling was fair. Generally, I thought the tone was that Cavendish is a hot head and needs to keep his act together. They were also pissed that the attempt to get the green jersey cost Hincapie a stage win. Now Colombia is empty-handed with Cavendish out of the green jersey and Tony Martin out of the white. They were overreaching and came up with nothing.
As for Garmin, I agree with your assessment. I hope that rather than tilt at windmills they can pull together to give Bradley Wiggins some help, for Wiggins sake.
Saw Wiggins’ interview from yesterday. I like him. I hope he continues to improve. Considering the changes he has made to his body, maybe he would be a good pick to show up on Livestrong-Nike. The leader of that team would know something about it.
I was thinking the same thing.
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