Posted on 06/23/2009 9:06:08 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
Whether speaking of a 58-year-old man or a 38-year-old woman or a little boy of nine, officials announcing swine flu deaths are almost always quick to note "underlying health conditions" may have contributed to the fatal outcome.
Asthma, heart disease, diabetes, maybe even obesity are among the conditions used to help explain why swine flu infection is hospitalizing and killing younger people, people who would be expected to make a full recovery from seasonal flu.
It could create the impression that only the sickly are dying from the new H1N1 flu virus -- a claim no one is making. To the contrary, many, including the World Health Organization, say between one-third and one-half of swine flu deaths have occurred in people who were previously healthy.
But how healthy is previously healthy? The answer depends...
(Excerpt) Read more at thespec.com ...
Heat infections can happen even in seasonal flu:
http://qjmed.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/60/3/887
“Heart disease is a recognised complication of Influenza.
We report a unique case in which myopericarditis and collapse due to acute influenza A infection was associated with pericardial effusion and tamponade. In addition, the patient had myositis and pleurisy. Emergency pericardiocentesis and inotropic drugs were needed”...
http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/flu-shots/HB00086
..”If you have heart disease, flu season can be a dangerous time. Death from influenza (flu) is more common among people with heart disease than among people with any other chronic condition”...
My grandparents and all their siblings were alive for the 1918 flu. At least 12 of that generation caught it and all recovered. Dad’s not sure how many of my mother’s parents’ siblings caught it, but his parents and all their sibs did. He does know no one on either side died from it, just from the fact that there were no deaths in the family tree at all that year.
Just my humble opinion, but I think you did the right thing. While not foolproof, warding off the twentysome common bacterial agents of pneumonia can't hurt.
All you can do is make your own preparations to deal with avoiding infection, for dealing with it if it occurs, and have enough of the necessities on hand to deal with any shortages which may arise from disruptions in the supply chain.
In the meantime, forewarned is forearmed.
“”But ... I would argue that the 30-year-old with mild asthma — how big of an underlying illness is that compared to again the 80-year-old person with bad lung disease from smoking who’s got heart disease?...””
I know I’ve been on the flu ping list for sometime even though I don’t why, yet it is getting distressingly more difficult to believe that a non-existent pandemic can be talked into existence and energized by the exercise.
Have we lost all sense of proportion? Have we been inured to the point we no longer think for ourselves — we can’t count past 100 or 1000 without help?
If I’m supposed to be convinced that an 80 year old smoker with a history of lung disease is suddenly now less likely to be at risk of succumbing to the flu than an otherwise presumed healthy 30 year old, couldn’t they at least recognize that their 80 year old poster boy should be congratulated for having escaped their clutches this long?
$1 to a donut, you’re wrong.
Well, it isn't nonexistent. It exists, people are getting the bug all over, they just aren't mostly dropping dead in their tracks, which is generally considered a good thing.
The fundamental question is one of how severe the underlying medical condition must be to be relevant.
Certainly other factors affect the probability of the 30 year old catching the disease, including activity and social life, exposure to other members of the population, possible lack of instinctive avoidance of those exhibiting symptoms, and the strength of their immune system (relevant if there is a cytokine storm factor involved).
Is the 30 year old with mild asthma considered to have the "underlying medical condition" if they succumb to the flu or complications (likely bacterial pneumonia)?
Surely, we would not see this as as severe as COPD in an 80 year old, but that 80 year-old is likely to have more limited personal exposure, be more concious of others exhibiting pulmonary symptoms, and may have been vaccinated against many forms of bacterial pneumonia already.
It gets difficult to sort through hype, disinformation, distortion, and downplay.
The initial two day TV hype about this flu was based on what has been deemed to be shaky data from a third world country and was suspiciously timed to coincide with the Sibelius and Koh nomination hearings.
So, what'll it be? Either this is a flash in the pan, and not a very spectacular one at that (unless you were a victim or a family member/friend was), or this bug will return from wintering in the Southern Hemisphere with a recombinant (or several) most folks in the Northern Hemisphere may be immunologically unacquainted with.
If so, the late season mild wave may be followed by a much more lethal fall wave (and subsequent waves of flu infections) and this would fit the pattern of the last four major pandemics.
As with all forecasting, past performance is no guarantee of future returns, and the bug may be a dud.
If it is a dud, knowing that is important too, so you are not caught up by the hype and making inappropriate choices on that basis either.
The predictions of doom and gloom may yield to sunny skies and rainbows (can you imagine insurance getting the credit for 'stopping the pandemic'--as if!), or people might end up dropping like flies.
Insurance will not protect against the latter, any more than it can stop a pandemic from occurring, and the requirement that people pay into a mandatory state-run health insurance will only make it more difficult for many to prepare on their own as they see fit for whatever may come.
In the meantime, I and others are just trying to keep people informed, and you may get pings to articles which are unadorned with likely deserved barf alerts. The content is out there, FReepers are mature enough for the most part to sort through it and either refute or support the claims in the article, and it will be here for anyone who points their mouse this way to read.
As for tomorrow, I for one, will wait and see, and try to be ready for whatever comes.
Well written and thought-out response but we must still deal with the decision of what to believe and fear and what to fear and disbelieve; for all the numbers gathered and made witness so far the greater weight has been given to the projections than the body count.
My point is that intentional distraction smells more like a political ploy than the smoldering remains of a forced, prophylactic cleansing.
Yet, I don’t really mind being pinged, I just mind being played by the professional persuaders that tick the the news tickers.
No hard feelings, friend.
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