You have to give this sort of thing a full year before drawing any conclusions. Leno as I recall lost early to Letterman...then dominated the ratings war between them for the next...14 years?
correct, Leno started winning after he put the audience closer and made it more of a ‘comedy club’ format which is his strong point.
The key for Conan, is Andy Richter, if they can recapture what they had on the old Late Night with Conan show, then I think it will eventually overtake Letterman.