From time to time I can be combative. It stems from two things, first my personality and second my life experience, especially the last 6 years. I graduated from college in the early '80s (Yes, that's the last time I read "The American Voter in my last PoliSci class). After college, I spent 20 years as a Marine officer. After retirement (and then a recall trip to Iraq) I became very active in the Republican part, primarily as college adviser to on-campus Republican groups.
This is why I'm so passionate, and sometimes abrasive especially in the area of the youth vote - a youth vote which far too many here are way too dismissive. Why is the you vote important? There have been several political scientist that have done post-election analysis that have concluded that Obama would have one, even without the financial meltdown, because of the youth vote. Or, put another way, Barack Obama enjoyed a little more than a 2% advantage because of his better than 66% showing in the 18-29 year old voter block. The youth vote is that important.
Look at these statistics for party performance with respect to varying demographic groups...
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/national-exit-polls.html
It shows that the last four Presidential elections, the GOP has been getting stomped in the youth vote. The coup de grâce came in 2008 when Obama had 34 point advantage.
People who think that this won't be a problem going forward are either deluded or haven't read the research - research that indicates people who vote for the first time when they are first eligible to vote, usually maintain a party loyalty of anywhere from 56% (as concluded by the American Voter) to over 60% (check out research from Beck and Billlingsly & Tucker). But, even if it's the low end, that means that the Dems are going to keep 56% of their 34 point advantage as this demographic ages. Essentially, there's a reasonable possibility that the GOP will be spotting the Dems somewhere in the neighborhood of 19 points with these particular set of voters.
In fairness, there's some hope for the GOP in so much that this only applies to the 18-29 voters that actually vote in the first or second election. The people that don't vote for the first time until they're into their late 20's or early 30's are essentially up for grabs.
I think many conservatives (especially here) are dismissive of the youth vote because the perception is they don't turn out. This is not necessarily accurate. They don't turn out in the same percentages as their older voting colleagues, but their impact is by no way insignficant.
Since 1996, the percentage of of eligible voters (in the 18-29) that have actually voted is increasing. In 2004, it was around 54% (compared to over 70% for the over 40 crowd). But, in 2008 many pollsters believe that the number is somewhere around 56%, which rivals the 1972 election, which was historic for young voter participation.
The best post-election analysis I've read so far about this topic comes from Pew. The report can be read below...
http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1031/young-voters-in-the-2008-election
Lastly, people are always so eager to share anecdotal evidence, so allow me to share mine. When I was in college, the College Republicans were incredibly visible, active and effective in generating turnout for the GOP. Reagan actually won the youth vote in '84 (by 20 points) as did Bush in '88 (5 points). Those young Reagan voters (like me) are now in their mid-to-late 40's - essentially one of the most reliable, active and passionate conservative supporters today in any demographic. This is the advantage that Dems, not Republicans will enjoy when these new, young voters are in their 40s.
I hope you've found this post, lest personal, less snarky or judgmental and more analytical as that was my intent.
We’re essentially in agreement on the youth vote. I have been advocating similar things here for a few years . While there are some areas where the party is going to have major problems (e.g., the gay issue that I mentioned in post 85), it’s also true that there are many areas where the party can improve its outreach without changing the platform. It doesn’t take sacrificing belefs to get with the program on social networking and the Internet in general or to present a conservative message in a way that makes it seem full of “hope” and “change”. And I think there are areas where the numbers favor the conservative viewpoint, such as abortion and affirmative action, where inroads cn be made provided that the message is presented in a reasonable way.
And yes, your latest post is the kind of post that betters this forum. Sorry for just about losing it earlier, but not everyone here is a simpleton who needs the basics recited to him. It’s not like we all have degrees in communications or women’s studies or some other easy field from podunk university after all. Some of us went to an “ Ivy Plus” school.
BTW, your thoughts on 85?
That was a very enlightening post. It just so happens we’ve been discussing “generations” and voting patterns on another thread, and your college experience sounds very much like mine, which I wrote about in post #55:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2234499/posts?page=55#55
You might be interested in the discussion on that thread, too. Even the author of the article signed up to reply on that thread.
I’m going to link to your post above on the other thread because it fits into the discussion there, too.
I just want to be more specific with the word I used - “enlightening”:
I’m enlightened by the information. But, I do find the state of politics in our country and the voting pattern of the younger demographic very worrisome. I just want to make sure that’s clear.