Posted on 02/19/2009 9:03:28 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Hey! I haven’t finished my countdown yet! You can’t call a depression before I finish my countdown.
Not the time to go long.....
I’m still hoping for a Good Depression and not a Great Depression. Let’s think small this time.
I don’t really agree.
It’s certainly not the time anymore to go short. We may not be at the bottom but I think we can see it from here.
People have been saying that for a long long time. People have been buying all the way down this collapse and regretting it. Here is hoping you aren’t later regretting it. I see no bottom in sight. None. People are only fearful. We still have “terrified” to go through yet, let along “mind-numbed with shock and denial”.
Nope, I can’t see a bottom. Not even close. But at least you know you aren’t buying at the top, so even if you lose half your investment you can say “could have been worse!”
By “Good” Depression, I am just hoping it is all smaller in scale than the “Great” Depression. I don’t want it to be GREAT!, but just Good. Smaller. Shorter. Lighter. Just praying for that — not expecting it.
As for inflation, I am seriously leaning that way now. I still see NO consensus between the Schiff-style inflation camp and the Mish-style deflation camp, but I am constantly sliding into the “ultimately we inflate hard” camp.
What's a long time? A few months?
BS. I went through the early ‘80s while Reagan tried to stabilize the post-Carter economy and implement his changes. It looked hellish at first, and the press was almost universally negative, but in a couple of years, things were on their way up.
I’m not saying Obama has anywhere near the ability Reagan had, but — as Reagan would tell you — the American people do.
I have faith we’ll muddle our way out of this.
New York Times Stock Now is Priced Less Than it's Sunday Times Paper !
New York Times Suspends Dividend
LOL, LOL !
Many special thanks to M. Espinola for the links.
work is work....its all legitimate AFAIC....
the real crisis is just hope.....we can't predict what the crazy hateful communist rats are going to do to us next......and why should we invest in our 401ks if there is talk of the govt conviscating it anyway?....its time to lay low and just bank your money or take it home.....
no matter if its inflation or deflation....now is the time to have extra groceries and supplies at home.....the price won’t get that much lower and they could go extemely higher....so when undies,towels,sheets,paper products,batteries etc go on sale, buy them and hold....
I would not buy stocks because there is no way to know about a companies true condition...you can’t trust rating agency like Moody’s who rated derivatives AAA. A CEO with a sweetheart board can take the money and run...using any company as a personal piggy banks...look at GE.
Yeah, I think in order to get out of deflation you have throw money at the problem and hope for inflation...my stockbroker -now out of work brother-told me pray for inflation because that means we escaped a 1930’s style depression. Inflation is easier to deal with down the road.
Largest credit bubble in history, worldwide (e.g. carry trade from Japan), spread into tech stocks in the 90's, spread into financial stocks in 00's, the credit reached its limit and contracted as it always does. People like to blame this or that discreet event, but like you probably guessed, all the bad mortgages could have been bought up last fall for a few hundred billion. Instead we in the trillions in infusions and guarantees. That is the financial system contracting and draining capital from the real economy (which wasn't that bad except for real estate).
The bottom line is that Greenspan destroyed the banking system with loose credit, starting in the 90's. Credit inevitably contracts like it did from 1929-1933. It is not the government that contracted it (Bernanke is wrong about that) but the market. It's as inevitable as the sunrise.
If you get an offer that has any hope of covering your expenses, take it. Opportunities are severly limited right now. Radically reduce your overhead, buckle down and ride it out. I've been in a similar situation myself, but it hit home with me almost exactly a year ago. I shut my business down and took a job with a former customer. Big pay cut, but I'm surviving.
I was layoff last July from a Web Development firm. I look for a new job and found the companies where not hiring programmers. I notice all the advertisement companies where laying off Web Designers and got thinking those designers will need a developer.
I refused to draw an unemployment check, learn that from Father when he was out of work in the 70’s. In my family it is a disgrace if you have to rely on government. I went out found work as a helper for Air Condition installations until I could set up my own company and find some web designers who need a developer.
Now I am self employed. My main customer base is the lay off Web Graphic Designers who started their own businesses. I have three clients now. I am finding that I can do a web site cheaper then a larger web firm due to my low cost over head. I am in the black now for profit, and I love my hours.
By the way, I never got behind on my mortgage or credit card payments. I just learn to cut back on my expenses. I will not need a government bail out, unless they tax me to death. I am a little worry about taxes. No depression for me.
Congratulations on being able to make a go of a small business in this environment. Mine was very profitable for ten of the twelve years it was open, and I still have some small amount of work I do for clients on evenings and weekends. But, if I had not done what I did last year, shutting down the office, selling equipment and taking a day job, I would have been in serious trouble by now. The bottom just fell out of sales, and payables really dragged out, with some nonpayment that I had to eat if I wanted to maintain my own supplier relationships. I’ll be surprised if I make $10,000.00 this year from the business remaining, and this is what is left of a business that netted six figures for many years.
In the 1987 Crash, we sat tight and watched companies like Lucent disappear and our stock holdings’ value along with it. There was a rebound and we gained back some of our portfolio’s value.
I think this is a different situation, but some of these companies will stay low and some will disappear, taking your investments with them. If I were younger, and if the rules allowed, I would put my 401k and other retirement money into the Money Markets, CDs or inflation indexed bonds.
Just a thought. My son held on to his stocks in his 401k on the premise that he was only 44 and time was in his favor. He has lost even more since Thanksgiving. When we put my husband’s IRA into cash, we did it via fax. If we had waited while everything went through the mails, we would have lost 3/4 instead of only 1/2.
This economy looks like it will recover slightly through the summer. But, as long as the Big Dogs aren’t investing (please see the bank stocks, GE, and others), just hanging in there does not increase the stock price. Without jobs that provide disposable income, there is no driver of the markets except those pumping stocks so they can get a pop and sell quickly, leaving those with a long term stake and rules that forbid them the right to withdraw their investments without a penalty, in trouble. If the people urging everyone to hang in are also the same people collecting fees for *management*, how much do you trust their advice? Plenty of money managers have lost big in this market. They all parrot the *hold* line, because if we don’t hold, they earn fewer fees and perhaps lose their jobs because there are too many managers and too few investors.
YMMV.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.