Posted on 02/02/2009 8:57:06 PM PST by TigerLikesRooster
Peter Schiff Rebuttal- A Response to My Critics
Stock-Markets / Managed Accounts Jan 29, 2009 - 04:47 PM
By: Peter_Schiff
My popularity on television and the internet has led a very small money manager to use his popular financial blog to promote his fledgling business by attacking the recent poor performance of my long-term investment strategy. The post is causing quite a stir and compels me to provide some badly needed context.
To achieve his ends, this individual has distorted much of what I have been saying and writing, and has twisted the facts to support his own preconceived conclusion. In essence, his piece is nothing more than an overt advertisement (and a highly deceptive one at that) to use my popularity to advance his career. In so doing he has given my critics, particularly some who have been embarrassed by their roles in the "Peter Schiff was Right" video, their moments of retribution. In addition, some members of the press who have never been among my greatest fans are seizing the opportunity to discredit me as well.
The crux of the blogger's arguments are that my beliefs in "decoupling, hyperinflation, and that the dollar is going to zero" have been completely discredited by the events of 2008, and that the resulting investment losses suffered by my clients last year confirms the fatal flaws in my approach. In addition to mischaracterizing many of my beliefs, he also is confusing short-term market fluctuations with long-term economic trends.
(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...
Not a flattering choice of words.:-)
Ping!
Who is the blogger/money manager Schiff is responding too?
Here is the link to his blog and the article in question:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/01/peter-schiff-was-wrong.html
Interesting - I like them both.
I’ve read Mish before. He is an opportunist. I am invested with Europac, but not with equities, yet. When the market bottoms in Asia, Schiff will be proven right as most American equities cannot recover like they have in the past.
He won’t even name Shedlock. That just makes Schiff look petty.
To illustrate the flaws in my investment strategy the blogger has posted a client’s statement that shows a loss in excess of 60%. In addition, he claims to know of other Euro Pacific clients who have experienced similar losses. The inference of course is that most, or all, of my clients must have suffered similar losses, and the existence of such losses proves that I am wrong. In fact, some have gone a step further, claiming that such losses prove that I am a fraud.
First let’s deal with the one client’s account. I have been following several key investment themes for the past ten years. The basis for my strategy is that recent U.S. prosperity has been false, and that the consequences of the bursting of our bubble economy would ultimately play out in a substantial decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, higher commodity prices, the re-monetization of gold, and foreign equities substantially outperforming U.S. markets. From an investment perspective, those themes played out extremely well in the eight years from 2000-2007. Recently we have seen a sharp, and I believe temporary, reversal of these trends. Those that came late to the party (at least based on where we are today) now have to ride out a particularly difficult correction.
For example, the account in question belongs to the son of a long-standing Euro Pacific client, who is still adding funds to his accounts. Without specially commenting on the performance of the father’s account, it must have been compelling enough to finally persuade the son to come on board himself in early 2008. However, as is often the case, by the time he came on board, foreign stocks and commodities were about to sell off, and the dollar was about to begin its unexpected rally. Following such a sharp correction, the son now regrets his decision and must blame me for my part in helping him make it.
Perhaps as a stockbroker I should have persuaded the son to wait for a correction. However, while this clearly would have been the right call with the full benefit of hind-sight, it was certainly not as clear given the information I had at the time. However, I never held myself out to be a market timer. My advice was always geared to long-term investors. Given the thousands of clients that I have, and the large number who joined near the recent dollar peak and market tops, it’s no wonder that a few have contacted this blogger to complain; especially since he has actively sought them out. Of course, the fact that the overwhelming majority of my clients are not complaining, to him or anyone else for that matter, says a lot more about what is really going on.
Why dignify the situation by naming the opponent?
IOW, there is a bunch of flim-flummery on both sides, sort of a mock battle with wooden swords to be beggar king at the fair.
I could be wrong.
This is a rhetorical fallacy of the first order and a defense of nothing. Schiff may not also be an opportunistic mountebank, but I cannot sustain that argument with these kinds of statements as evidence.
Because Mish Shedlock is wiping the floor with Schiff, analysis-wise, and it’s becoming obvious to everyone that reads both of them.
I’d agree with that. At this time, I just think Mish makes the better arguments, and they are copiously documented. His daily analysis is a must read. Schiff just likes to appear on TV, and flog his books, which have already been overtaken by events.
Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy reading Schiff everytime he comes out with a column. But I’m not buying his books that were written last year based on “decoupling” for example.
Where’s Shedlock’s stuff posted? I’ve found a “Seeking Alpha” site and another called “Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis”.
Is it one of those, or a third?
Thanks.
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