Don't bet the farm on that one. I know for a fact that at the upper levels of army special operations back in the mid 90's there was a real discourse among army special operations officers as to when might the time come for troops to stand by the people and against the government? That is after all, one of the main missions of army special forces: To train indigenious militia into an effective force to accomplish regime change. What happens if the military splits along idelogical lines? What happens if whole units from state national guards decide to side with the people and bring their inventory with them? It's happened before. At the outset of hostilities for the War between the States, many cadets at West Point left to fight for the south. So did many of their instructors.
But again, the insurgents could probably cause chaos, but could they actually defeat and overcome the army or just lead them a merry dance? The taleban is doing a good job of leading the coalition forces a merry dance, but it can’t actually take the fight to them and defeat them.
There are dang few terrorists who can lay credible proof that they know how to lead in combat. As for the Taliban, NONE of those bozos that can make a claim to being a trained leader, whereas the American military is full of them. We have the only military force in the world (aside maybe from Israel) that teaches leadership to the lowest enlisted levels. If a unit gets wiped out of officers and sergeants, then the private first class (pfc) with the most senior date of rank knows how to take over and what to do. Charlie Tango Mike: Continue The Mission. The task isn't really defeating the military in detail all over the country. Let me ask you, how do you kill a snake? Cut the head off. In a den of vipers you may have to cut the heads off quite a few. But in the end, once the brains are dead the body will stop twitching. See?
That's why the Taliban have no chance of ever truly defeating us. To do that, means they have to come here and cut the head off. Not likely. But a war fought on our home territory with the head of the threat here and a viable target, along with the senior planners and assistants? You betcha!
What many folks fail to grasp is that a military has an easier time rotating troops into a distant country like Afghanistan, than they ever would occupying their own country against the will of a significant percent of the people.
Overseas, relatively fresh and mission-oriented troops live on secure firebases, and only leave for missions. Their families are safe, thousands of miles away.
At home, occupational troops must face years or decades of fear. Their families live with them, and could be “collateral damage” or worse. The parking lot at target would be a dangerous place. Fishing or golfing or jogging? Forget it, forever, while you live hunkered down.