Posted on 01/03/2009 3:08:02 AM PST by Las Vegas Dave
Well, the New Year is here and I've already made nine predictions for High-Definition in 2009, including $99 Blu-ray players and an end to Internet TV services Vudu and Apple TV and retailer Circuit City.
I also predicted that the Digital TV transition will create a ratings hardship for local TV stations with many viewers deciding not to participate in the switch due to its confusing nature.
So, do I have any more predictions for 2009?
Yes!
My crystal ball is still clear as a bell. So let's start the year with 5 more fearless forecasts for HDTV.
1. DIRECTV Cuts Back On Original Programming
The satcaster this year helped financed the third season of NBC's Friday Night Lights as part of a new effort to offer original programming on the dish. (For its investment, DIRECTV was permitted to show the third season in its entirety before it aired on NBC; the network will begin broadcasting the third season later this month.)
While an episode of FNL reportedly was viewed by roughly 700,000 DIRECTV viewers each week, I predict that the satcaster will not renew its partnership with NBC for a fourth season. In addition, DIRECTV will put the breaks on plans for other original programming partnerships.
Why?
The recession. Like everyone else, DIRECTV needs to tighten the belt and original programming is a luxury that it simply can't afford at this time.
2. The Digital TV Transition Will Be a Disaster
On February 17, 2009, all full-powered local TV stations will switch from analog to digital signals, meaning viewers will need a Digital TV, a converter box or a pay TV service to keep watching television. However, all signs point to a looming disaster when the transition occurs. The government is not ready; millions of viewers aren't ready; and many local stations aren't ready.
I predict that millions of Americans will either choose to stop watching TV entirely or will be unable to watch because of various technical complications with the converter boxes. This will cause many people to complain to their local congressmen, local stations, local media, local everyone.
Voter anger (and media hysteria) will be so intense that Congress will be forced to revisit the transition and try to find a quick fix. But there aren't any quick fixes, which means 2009 will be a terrible year for everyone involved. This transition was poorly conceived and even more poorly executed by the government and the industry. Now, they will have to pay the price for their mistakes.
3. Pay TV Providers Will Gain More Subs
However, some viewers who now get their local signals via off-air antennas will sign up with their local cable operator or a telco or satellite service shortly before the Digital TV transition or shortly thereafter. They will be desperate for a simple way to keep watching TV.
4. Small-Screen Digital TV Sales Will Rise In First Quarter
Likewise, many consumers who are fearful of losing their TV signals will run to their neighborhood store in search of a cheap digital set, preferably one under $500. Consequently, you'll see a significant rise in the sale of 32-inch and even 27-inch Digital TV/HDTVs in the first quarter of the year.
5. DIRECTV and Dish Network Will Merge
Okay, everyone says it can't happen because federal regulators would never approve it. (The FCC rejected a DIRECTV-Dish merger in 2002) But I say it has to happen. Dish Network is losing subs, folks, so it has to do something dramatic -- and soon -- to stay competitive.
While I wouldn't compare Dish to Detroit, the satcaster is in need of a bailout, but not from the feds. Dish needs a partner or a buyer and DIRECTV is the obvious choice. The feds would be irresponsible to reject a satellite merger in this economic environment.
FReepmail.
One nice thing about digital TV though: no more "ghosting" like you can get with analog over-air broadcasts.
I sure hope dir & dish don't merge; my bill would be 500 overnight. Don't trust the liars at dir and dish can't compete with dir prices.
I would really like to see availability of Junior Hockey like NHL on dir tv. I'd gladly pay another 400/yr to watch OHL teams play regular.
As much as old Cuban is a big dem; I really like HDN and his programming. Art Mann & ariel HD photography of BC & Ireland really is good stuff.
Another question? What's after 1080P & diamond series Mitsubs? How soon?
Every time I see a commercial or PSA "warning" about the switchover, I can plan on a phone call within 5 minutes from my Mom asking if she is going to have a problem.
Maybe this is a city/country thing. I live in New Hampshire. I don’t know a single person who is still using an antenna to receive TV signals.
Sorry, my magic 8-ball is not working today...
Disaster?
Yep. Sounds about right for the roll out of a govt-mandated program.
So let's forge ahead, citizen!
Feb. 17th is as good a time as any; not much happens between the Super Bowl and the NCAA Tournament anyway...gives ‘em time to sort it out.
You are right. My Mom who is 83 this week has asked me a dozen times if she is going to have a problem. Each time I assure her that she is on Comcast and has no reason to worry. And then I cross my fingers that I am right on this.
I KNOW: LET'S GIVE 'EM A BAILOUT!
These people are also known as "those too stupid to vote." Anybody who hasn't heard about the DTV transition is beyond dense.
If she's on ComCast, or any cable system, she shouldn't notice a thing different.
It's been announced and in everyone's faces for well over a year.
Don't know about DTV = Too stupid to vote.
The perception is a bit different with a flat panel TV. My living room is pretty small, and I have a 37". I would never buy smaller than that. Maybe 32" for the master bedroom.
I have heard they are working on 2160P. Technically there are 2160P's available now in the 52" size that would set you back $40,000. That is 40K and not 4K.
An 82" Samsung model is described as follows: The prototype display has a massive 82 size and features a resolution of 3820x2160 pixels, which results in a total screen resolution of 8.3 megapixels. Current 1080p TVs run at 1920x1080 pixels or 2.1 megapixels. According to the manufacturer, the TV integrates a red/green/blue LED backlight, which raises the color saturation to 150%. The image refresh rate is 120 Hz.
If you want to read about it go here. If you want to buy it you better win the lottery.
http://www.tgdaily.com/html_tmp/content-view-37511-97.html
Now if you really want to go bannanas then there is http://www.engadget.com/2005/11/05/nhk-shows-off-some-live-7680-x-4320-super-hi-vision-tv-in/
NHK shows off some live 7680 x 4320 "Super Hi-Vision" TV in Japan running at 7680 x 4320 16 times the resolution of that lame old 1080i your grandparents are talking about.
I think not. Sounds a little like the "chicken little" sky is falling mentality of the Y2K non-event. The problems with the changeover will be very minor.
My prediction. Cable/DirecTV/Dish will all lose 5-10% of subscriptions to consumers purchasing antennas' to take advantage of the excellent pitcher quality of free OTA digital signals. The economic situation will help make this occur.
I concur. The transition has been handled as well as it could be (amazingly so considering the government is involved). All the whining and gnashing of teeth is garbage, it’s been the 21st century for most of a decade, time to shut off the analog band!
Wow! I have the same feeling about DirecTV. I was with Dish, then I signed up DirecTV and was lied to over an over. Once they had me installed, they finally gave me the truth. I cancelled within 24 hours, they took my money anyway. After several calls and preliminary talks with my bank, they finally refunded the wrongly taken ‘early termination fee’.
I don’t love Charlie Ergen at Dish, but will probably go back sooner than later.
But will American Idol still be on then?
I predict 2 to 6 million people (400,000 to 2 million households) will be unable to get their TV shows on 2/18. How many of those will be Idol fans?
Yup, it’ll be a disaster.
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